基于PVAR模型的广西乡村旅游–新型城镇化–生态环境的动态关系研究——基于广西14个地级市面板数据

Research on the Dynamic Relationship among Rural Tourism, New Urbanization and Ecological Environment in Guangxi Based on PVAR Model—Based on Panel Data of 14 Prefecture-Level Cities in Guangxi

摘要: 广西乡村旅游资源丰富，生态环境优越，但随着新型城镇化的发展，它们三者之间的影响关系引起了人们的广泛关注。本文基于2010~2021年广西14个地级市乡村旅游、新型城镇化和生态环境的相关面板数据，对广西乡村旅游、新型城镇化和生态环境之间的动态关系进行实证研究。首先，构建了三个系统的综合评价指标体系，利用熵权法得到三个系统的综合评价指数。在此基础上，利用平稳性检验、PVAR模型、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数分析、方差分解等进行实证研究。结果显示，广西乡村旅游是新型城镇化的单向格兰杰原因，广西新型城镇化是生态环境的单向格兰杰原因。广西乡村旅游、生态环境与新型城镇化均为相互促进关系。最后，提出了一些政策建议。

Abstract: The rural tourism resources in Guangxi are rich and the ecological environment is superior. However, with the development of new urbanization, the relationship among the three has attracted wide attention. Based on the panel data of rural tourism, new urbanization and ecological environment in 14 prefecture-level cities in Guangxi from 2010 to 2021, this paper conducted an empirical study on the dynamic relationship among rural tourism, new urbanization and ecological environment in Guangxi. Firstly, the comprehensive evaluation index system of the three systems is constructed, and the comprehensive evaluation index of the three systems is obtained by entropy weight method. On this basis, the stationarity test, PVAR model, Granger causality test, impulse response function analysis, variance decomposition and so on are used for empirical research. The results show that rural tourism in Guangxi is a one-way Granger cause of new urbanization, and the new urbanization in Guangxi is a one-way Granger cause of ecological environment. Rural tourism, ecological environment and new urbanization in Guangxi are mutually promoting relations. Finally, some policy suggestions are put forward.