新关联网络中大金融科技风险的跨界传染效应

The Cross-Border Contagion Effect of Large Fintech Risks in New Association Networks

摘要: 随着新科技与金融业的深度融合，一个由金融科技公司和传统金融机构构成的新关联网络悄然形成。新关联网络中的大金融科技公司与传统金融机构间的技术与业务渗透日益紧密并对传统金融业产生风险传染与溢出。文章立足新关联网络，通过识别大金融科技风险并探寻其传染机制，选取股票收益率变量数据，利用GARCH-Copula模型测度大金融科技的风险溢出效应。结果表明：大金融科技公司的风险水平高于传统金融机构，且对传统金融业具有风险传染效应，其中对证券业的风险溢出强度最大，对银行业的风险溢出相对较弱。大金融科技对传统金融业的风险溢出强度与其在新关联网络中的关联度成正比关系，但其传染强度并不随着关联度的增加而增强。因此，要降低大金融科技风险对传统金融的风险传染溢出，必须充分运用监管科技手段，建立涵盖新关联网络各环节各渠道各层面的风险监管与防控机制，以及时发现和抑制风险的兹生、衍化和传染。

Abstract: With the deep integration of new technology and the financial industry, a new association network composed of financial technology companies and traditional financial institutions has quietly formed. The technology and business penetration between large financial technology companies and traditional financial institutions in the new association network is getting closer and closer, which will cause risk contagion and spillover to the traditional financial industry. Based on the new association network, this paper identifies big financial technology risks and explores its contagion mechanism, selects variable data of stock return rate, and uses GARCH-Copula model to measure the risk spillover effect of big financial technology. The results show that the risk level of large fintech companies is higher than that of traditional financial institutions, and it has a risk contagion effect on the traditional financial industry, among which the risk spillover strength to the securities industry is the largest, and the risk spillover to the banking industry is relatively weak. The risk spillover strength of big fintech to the traditional financial industry is proportional to its correlation degree in the new association network, but its contagion intensity does not increase with the increase of correlation degree. Therefore, in order to reduce the risk contagion spillover of large financial technology risks to traditional finance, it is necessary to make full use of regulatory and technological means, establish a risk supervision and control mechanism covering all links and channels of the new network, and timely detect and curb the emergence, evolution and contagion of risks.