病毒潜伏期影响因素分析——基于对数正态分布

Analysis of Factors Affecting Incubation Period of Virus—Based on Log-Normal

摘要: 鉴于传染病、疫情等突发性疾病的严峻性，其出现无疑会对人们的生产生活造成极其严重的冲击。若控制不力，将引发医疗资源紧张、经济质量下滑等一系列关乎生存与发展的问题。因此，对发病源的规律性进行深入探究显得尤为重要。通过掌握疾病的发展规律，医者能够及时制定相应医疗方案，实施有效干预，进而遏制疾病的进一步扩散，控制医疗成本。自2019年COVID-19疫情爆发以来，该病毒已对全球的经济、卫生、医疗等多个领域造成了巨大冲击，同时也对人类的生存安全提出了严峻挑战。本文以国家卫生健康委员会公布的各省市感染人数的真实数据为基础，经过严格的信息完整度筛查，依据病源仅暴露一次、暴露源清晰、暴露信息记录完整的标准，筛选出78位患者的病历数据作为研究样本。通过深入分析，探索了新型冠状病毒的潜伏期天数，结果表明，该病毒在人体内的平均潜伏期约为16天。此外，研究还发现，潜伏期长短与患者的性别、年龄无显著关联，但与已感染群体的接触方式和病毒的地域浓度密切相关。

Abstract: Given the severity of infectious diseases, pandemics, and other sudden illnesses, their emergence undoubtedly poses a grave impact on people’s lives and production. If not controlled effectively, it will lead to a series of issues concerning survival and development, such as the strain on medical resources and a decline in economic quality. Therefore, it is crucial to conduct in-depth research on the regularity of the source of the disease. By grasping the development pattern of the disease, doctors can promptly formulate corresponding medical treatment plans, implement effective interventions, and thereby curb the further spread of the disease and control medical costs. Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, the virus has had a tremendous impact on various fields such as global economy, health, and medical care, while also posing severe challenges to human survival and safety. Based on the real data of the number of infections in various provinces and cities announced by the National Health Commission, this article has strictly screened for information completeness and selected 78 patients’ medical record data as research samples according to the criteria of only one exposure to the source of the disease, clear exposure source, and complete exposure information records. Through in-depth analysis, the latent period of the novel coronavirus was explored, and the results showed that the average latent period of the virus in the human body is approximately 16 days. Additionally, the study found that the length of the latent period was not significantly associated with the patient’s gender or age, but was closely related to the mode of contact with infected individuals and the regional concentration of the virus.