基于ArcGIS的长三角地区暴雨灾害风险评估研究

Risk Assessment of Rainstorm Disasters in the Yangtze River Delta Region Based on ArcGIS

摘要: 选取长三角地区222个气象站1960~2015年气象资料，按照暴雨过程危险性等级评估技术规范结合层级分析法和专家打分法从暴雨洪涝灾害的危险性、敏感性、易损性和防灾减灾能力4个因子入手，选取13个暴雨洪涝灾害综合风险评价指标，建立长三角地区暴雨洪涝灾害综合风险评估模型。结果表明暴雨洪涝灾害危险性空间分布上，安徽西南部和浙江南部地区危险性最高，安徽中部、北部和浙江中部、北部地区最低。敏感性而言，浙江除北部以外大部分地区和安徽安庆、黄山地区敏感性较高，安徽中部、北部和江苏中部、北部地区最低。易损性方面，江苏南部和上海市易损性最高，安徽南部和浙江西南部易损性最低。防灾减灾能力方面，安徽整体防灾能力最弱，合肥、南京、无锡、苏州、杭州和宁波防灾能力较高，防灾能力最强的地区为上海。综合四个因子，安徽西南部和浙江东南部地区暴雨灾害的风险等级最高，上海市暴雨灾害风险等级较高。安徽中部、北部和江苏发生暴雨灾害的风险较小。

Abstract: The meteorological data of 222 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River Delta region from 1960 to 2015 were selected, and 13 comprehensive risk assessment indexes of rainstorm and flood disasters were selected according to the technical standards for rainstorm process risk grade assessment, combined with hierarchical analysis method and expert scoring method, starting with the four factors of rainstorm and flood disaster risk, sensitivity, vulnerability and disaster prevention and mitigation ability. Establish a comprehensive risk assessment model of rainstorm and flood disaster in Yangtze River Delta region. The results showed that the spatial distribution of rainstorm and flood hazard was the highest in southwest Anhui and southern Zhejiang, and the lowest in central and northern Anhui and central and northern Zhejiang. In terms of sensitivity, most areas except the northern part of Zhejiang Province and Anqing and Huangshan areas of Anhui Province have higher sensitivity, while central and northern Anhui province and central and northern Jiangsu Province have the lowest sensitivity. In terms of vulnerability, southern Jiangsu and Shanghai have the highest vulnerability, and southern Anhui and southwest Zhejiang have the lowest vulnerability. In terms of disaster prevention and reduction ability, Anhui has the weakest overall disaster prevention ability, Hefei, Nanjing, Wuxi, Suzhou, Hangzhou and Ningbo have higher disaster prevention ability, and Shanghai has the strongest disaster prevention ability. According to the four factors, the risk level of rainstorm disaster in southwest Anhui and southeast Zhejiang is the highest, and the risk level of rainstorm disaster in Shanghai is higher. Central and northern Anhui and Jiangsu provinces are less at risk of rainstorm disasters.