子女随迁对农民工家庭教育满意度的影响——基于倾向值匹配的反事实估计

Influence of Children Moving with Migrant Workers on Family Education Satisfaction—Counterfactual Estimation Based on Propensity Value Matching

摘要: 本研究基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS) 2018年的数据，构建倾向得分匹配模型估计子女随迁决策对农民工家庭的教育满意度影响效应，同时从父母受教育程度、子女性别和就学阶段三个方面进行了随迁效应分样本估计。结果发现，整体上子女随迁对农民工家庭的教育满意度有积极作用，但在不同条件下这种影响效应有所差异。最后，建议鼓励农民工家庭整体迁移，同时做好城镇化发展的合理布局；从政策设计层面提出优化路径；能够给予劣势处境的农民工家庭一定的保障支持。

Abstract: Based on the data of China Family Panel Studies (2018), this paper builds a propensity score matching model to estimate the effect of children’s decision making on migrant workers’ education satisfaction. Meanwhile, sub-sample estimates of the effect are carried out from three aspects: parents’ education level, children’s gender and schooling stage. The results show that children move with migrant workers, which has a positive effect on the education satisfaction of migrant workers’ families on the whole, but the effect is different under different conditions. Finally, we should encourage migrant workers’ families to migrate as a whole, and at the same time make a reasonable layout for urbanization development. The optimization path is proposed from the level of policy design. The disadvantaged migrant workers’ families should be given certain security support.