榕江县近40年降水变化特征分析

Analysis of Precipitation Variation Characteristics in Rongjiang County over the Past 40 Years

摘要: 采用趋势分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验和小波分析等方法对榕江县1981~2020年近40a降水数据进行分析，通过年季月降水量、降水日数及强降水等关键指标进行详细研究得出：榕江县近40a年降水量呈缓慢上升趋势，年际变化递增率为61 mm/10a；各季度变化趋势不同，除冬季呈缓慢下降趋势外，其余均为上升趋势，夏季上升趋势最为显著，递增率为40 mm/10a。各月降水分布极为不均，多雨月份主要出现在5~8月。榕江县近40a年降水量年际变化没有发生突变，周期性变化规律也不显著。暴雨日数及年最大日降水量、小时雨强和10分钟雨强均呈上升趋势。

Abstract: The precipitation data of Rongjiang County from 1981 to 2020 were analyzed using trend analysis, the Mann-Kendall mutation test, and wavelet analysis. Based on the study of key indicators such as annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation, as well as the number of precipitation days and instances of heavy precipitation, it is concluded that the annual precipitation in Rongjiang County has been slowly rising over the past 40 years, with an annual increase rate of 61 mm/10a. The trends vary across seasons; except for a slow decline in winter, all other seasons show an upward trend, with the most significant increase in summer, at an annual rate of 40 mm/10a. The monthly distribution of precipitation is extremely uneven, with the wettest months primarily from May to August. The interannual variation of precipitation in Rongjiang County over the past 40 years has not undergone a sudden change, and the periodic variation pattern is not significant. The number of rainstorm days, annual maximum daily precipitation, hourly rainfall intensity and 10 minute rainfall intensity all show an upward trend.