基于“双碳”目标的电力供需预警与碳排放预警研究

Research on Power Supply and Demand Early Warning and Carbon Emission Early Warning Based on the Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals

摘要: 为响应新型电力系统对低碳电力需求的号召，在传统单一电力供需预警的基础上，应展开对碳排放和电力的双重预警，及时反映碳排放的超标以及电力供需失衡的状态。基于上述背景，本文提出一种电力供需预警与碳排放预警的研究方法，首先根据电力供需预警的基本理论，结合新时代背景下对电力系统低碳化的迫切要求，建立基于“双碳”目标的电力供需预警与碳排放预警指标体系，包括电力供需预警指标和碳排放预警指标，然后以某地区电力和碳排放相关数据进行算例分析，选择模态分解预测算法对电力供需形势和碳排放趋势进行预测，最后对该地区进行了多时间尺度预警计算，验证了所提预警方法的有效性。

Abstract: In order to respond to the call of the new power system for low-carbon power demand, on the basis of the traditional single power supply and demand warning, the dual warning of carbon emissions and electricity should be launched to reflect the excessive carbon emissions and the imbalance of power supply and demand in time. Based on the above background, this paper proposes a research method of power supply and demand early warning and carbon emission early warning. First, according to the basic theory of power supply and demand early warning and combined with the urgent requirement of low-carbon power system in the new era, a power supply and demand early warning and carbon emission early warning index system based on the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals is established, including power supply and demand early warning index and carbon emission early warning index. Then, the relevant data of power and carbon emissions in a certain region are analyzed for example, and the mode decomposition prediction algorithm is selected to predict the power supply and demand situation and carbon emission trend. Finally, the multi-time scale early warning calculation is carried out for this region, and the validity of the proposed early warning method is verified.