基于系统动力学的生鲜农产品供应链风险研究

Research on Supply Chain Risk of Fresh Produce Based on System Dynamics

摘要: 随着全球化贸易的不断扩展和消费者对生鲜农产品品质要求的提高，高效而稳定的供应链管理成为确保食品安全和满足市场需求的关键。由于生鲜农产品具有易腐性、季节性和地域性等特点，使得供应链系统易面临众多风险。因此，文章深入探讨生鲜农产品供应链中的风险因素，识别出关键的风险点，然后运用SD方法构建动态模型进行模拟，发现在众多可能影响供应链稳定性的因素中，供应风险是最为关键和显著的一个，鉴于此，提出了一套针对性的风险管理策略，为生鲜农产品供应链管理提供了见解和思路。

Abstract: As globalised trade continues to expand and consumer demand for fresh produce quality increases, efficient and stable supply chain management has become the key to ensuring food safety and meeting market demand. Due to the perishable, seasonal and geographical characteristics of fresh agricultural products, the supply chain system is vulnerable to many risks. Therefore, the article discusses the risk factors in the fresh produce supply chain in depth, identifies the key risk points, and then constructs a dynamic model for simulation by using the SD method, and finds that among the many factors that may affect the stability of the supply chain, the supply risk is the most critical and significant one, in view of which, a set of tailored risk management strategies is proposed, which provides insights and ideas for the management of the fresh produce supply chain.