CMIP6高分辨率模式中西北太平洋热带气旋未来活动时空变化特征
Future Changes of the Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Characteristics: Results from a CMIP6 High-Resolution Model
DOI: 10.12677/ccrl.2024.134102, PDF,    国家自然科学基金支持
作者: 闫佳宁, 许士斌：中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院，山东 青岛；黄 菲：中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院，山东 青岛；中国海洋大学物理海洋实验室，山东 青岛；中国海洋大学海洋高等研究院，山东 青岛
关键词: 热带气旋；强台风；MRI-AGCM3-2-H；通风效应；Tropical Cyclone； Severe Typhoon； MRI-AGCM3-2-H； Ventilation Effect
摘要: 本文比较了MRI-AGCM3-2-H模式对热带气旋(Tropical Cyclones, TC)和强台风(Severe Typhoon, STY)的未来变化趋势及相关的大尺度环流因素，结果表明：未来TC的年际变化呈现出显著减少的趋势，尤其是西北太平洋(WNP)东部TC的生成概率显著减少，未来STY的变化也是显著减少的长期趋势。通过DGPI指数对TC的减少进行诊断分析，贡献最大的环境因素是500 hPa垂直速度。通风效应的加强是STY减少的原因，这主要是由热力学参数的显著增强引起的。与TC生成和发展相关的季风槽减弱，副热带高压增强，大气环流系统向不利于对流活动的方向发展，因此限制了TC的生成和加强。
Abstract: This study compared the future trends of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and Severe Typhoons (STYs) in the MRI-AGCM3-2-H model and their associated large scale environmental factors. The results indicate a significant decrease in the interannual variability of TC, particularly in the probability of TC generation in the eastern Western North Pacific (WNP). Similarly, there is a significant decreasing trend in STY. Diagnostic analysis using the DGPI index revealed that the most significant environmental factor contributing to the decrease in TC is the 500 hPa vertical velocity. The strengthening of the ventilation effect is attributed to the reduction in STY, primarily due to the significant enhancement of thermodynamic parameters. The weakening of the monsoon trough and the strengthening of the subtropical high-pressure system, associated with changes in atmospheric circulation unfavorable for convective activity, limit the generation and intensification of TC.
文章引用：闫佳宁, 黄菲, 许士斌. CMIP6高分辨率模式中西北太平洋热带气旋未来活动时空变化特征[J]. 气候变化研究快报, 2024, 13(4): 896-906. https://doi.org/10.12677/ccrl.2024.134102

参考文献

[1] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2021) Climate Change 2021—The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
[2] Webster, P.J., Holland, G.J., Curry, J.A. and Chang, H.-R. (2005) Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment. Science, 309, 1844-1846. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
[3] Klotzbach, P.J. and Landsea, C.W. (2015) Extremely Intense Hurricanes: Revisiting Webster et al. (2005) after 10 Years. Journal of Climate, 28, 7621-7629. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[4] Wu, L., Zhao, H., Wang, C., Cao, J. and Liang, J. (2022) Understanding of the Effect of Climate Change on Tropical Cyclone Intensity: A Review. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 39, 205-221. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[5] Wu, Q., Wang, X. and Tao, L. (2020) Interannual and Interdecadal Impact of Western North Pacific Subtropical High on Tropical Cyclone Activity. Climate Dynamics, 54, 2237-2248. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[6] Bai, C., Zhang, R., Bao, S., San Liang, X. and Guo, W. (2018) Forecasting the Tropical Cyclone Genesis over the Northwest Pacific through Identifying the Causal Factors in Cyclone-Climate Interactions. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 35, 247-259. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[7] Kim, H.-K. and Seo, K.-H. (2016) Cluster Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Tracks over the Western North Pacific Using a Self-Organizing Map. Journal of Climate, 29, 3731-3751. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[8] Roberts, M.J., Camp, J., Seddon, J., Vidale, P.L., Hodges, K., Vanniere, B., Mecking, J., Haarsma, R., Bellucci, A., Scoccimarro, E., Caron, L.-P., Chauvin, F., Terray, L., Valcke, S., Moine, M.-P., Putrasahan, D., Roberts, C., Senan, R., Zarzycki, C. and Ullrich, P. (2020) Impact of Model Resolution on Tropical Cyclone Simulation Using the HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA Multi-Model Ensemble. Journal of Climate, 33, 2557-2583. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[9] Yamada, Y., Satoh, M., Sugi, M., Kodama, C., Noda, A.T., Nakano, M. and Nasuno, T. (2017) Response of Tropical Cyclone Activity and Structure to Global Warming in a High-Resolution Global Nonhydrostatic Model. Journal of Climate, 30, 9703-9724. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[10] Tang, Y., Huangfu, J., Huang, R. and Chen, W. (2022) Simulation and Projection of Tropical Cyclone Activities over the Western North Pacific by CMIP6 HighResMIP. Journal of Climate, 35, 4171-4194. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[11] Ullrich, P.A. and Zarzycki, C.M. (2017) TempestExtremes: A framework for Scale-Insensitive Pointwise Feature Tracking on Unstructured Grids. Geoscientific Model Development, 10, 1069-1090. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[12] Wang, B. and Murakami, H. (2020) Dynamic Genesis Potential Index for Diagnosing Present-Day and Future Global Tropical Cyclone Genesis. Environmental Research Letters, 15, Article ID: 114008. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[13] Tang, B. and Emanuel, K. (2012) A Ventilation Index for Tropical Cyclones. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93, 1901-1912. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[14] Bryan, G.H. (2008) On the Computation of Pseudoadiabatic Entropy and Equivalent Potential Temperature. Monthly Weather Review, 136, 5239-5245. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[15] Wu, L. and Zhao, H. (2012) Dynamically Derived Tropical Cyclone Intensity Changes over the Western North Pacific. Journal of Climate, 25, 89-98. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[16] 邢彩盈, 吴胜安, 朱晶晶, 胡德强. 南海-西北太平洋季风槽及其与热带气旋的关系: 不同再分析资料对比[J]. 海洋预报, 2023(6): 78-89.
[17] Yang, K., Cai, W., Huang, G., Hu, K., Ng, B. and Wang, G. (2022) Increased Variability of the Western Pacific Subtropical High under Greenhouse Warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119, e2120335119. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]

为你推荐