基于IAHP-未确知测度的煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险评估

Risk Assessment of Coal Mine Gas Explosion Based on IAHP-Unascertained Measure

摘要: 为了对煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险进行量化并解决分析过程中不确定性处理的不足，基于IAHP-未确知测度理论提出了一种煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险评估方法。首先，基于专家经验确定影响瓦斯爆炸的主要风险指标，并构建风险评估指标体系结构模型。然后，通过IAHP方法计算出各影响指标权重，同时以未确知测度理论为基础，对具有不确定性和模糊性的信息进行合理的定量化分析，构建指标测度函数，得到结构模型的指标测度矩阵。最后，基于置信度准则进行风险等级判定。结果表明：4个一级指标中影响最大的是管理因素，是导致煤矿瓦斯爆炸的关键风险因素；20个二级指标中影响最大的是安全科技与投入，其次是员工的平均工龄、通风系统、安全文化，煤矿应重视这些因素在矿井安全生产单元中的重要作用；影响最小的是自然发火期、煤层爆炸指数。根据煤矿实际开采情况对5个工作面进行瓦斯爆炸风险评估，评判等级分别为安全、较安全、较安全、较安全、较安全，评价结果与实际工程相符合，基于该评价模型可为决策者有效管控煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险提供一定的理论指导。

Abstract: In order to quantify the coal mine gas explosion risk and solve the shortage of uncertainty treatment in the process of analysis, a coal mine gas explosion risk assessment method based on IAHP-unascertained measure theory is proposed. First, the main risk indicators affecting gas explosion are determined based on the expert experience, and the risk assessment index system structure model is built. Then, the weight of each influence index is calculated by IAHP method. At the same time, based on the unascertained measure theory, the information with uncertainty and fuzziness is quantitatively analyzed, the index measure function is constructed, and the index measure matrix of the structural model is obtained. Finally, the risk level is determined based on the confidence criterion. The results show that management factor is the most influential factor among the four primary indexes, which is the key risk factor leading to coal mine gas explosion. Among the 20 secondary indexes, safety technology and input are the most influential, followed by the average length of service of employees, ventilation system and safety culture. Coal mines should pay attention to the important role of these factors in the mine safety production unit. The least influence is spontaneous ignition period and coal seam explosion index. According to the actual mining situation of the coal mine, the gas explosion risk assessment was carried out on 5 working faces, and the evaluation grades were respectively safe, relatively safe, relatively safe, relatively safe, and relatively safe. The evaluation results were consistent with the actual project, and based on the evaluation model, certain theoretical guidance could be provided for the decision makers to effectively control the gas explosion risk in the coal mine.