经济政策不确定性对基金流量的影响研究——基于投资者情绪的中介效应

A Study on the Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Fund Flow—Mediating Effect Based on Investors’ Sentiment

摘要: 开放式基金是一种风险共担，利益共存的证券投资方式，其变动时刻影响着股市的发展。探究宏观经济政策是怎样影响开放式基金流量，有助于更好地理解政策不确定性可能引发的经济后果，为政策制定者提供参考价值。此外，实践表明投资者在进行投资决策时受到情绪的影响，比如开放式基金市场中普遍存在的“羊群效应”“处置效应”等现象。因此，从投资者情绪的角度探究宏观经济政策对基金流量的影响无论是对基金经理还是个体投资者甚至对整个开放式基金市场都有着重要的意义。本文将2010年前设立2010~2023年存续的我国开放式股票型基金数据作为研究对象，综合考量上述问题。研究发现：1) 基金流量与宏观经济政策调整频率存在显著正向关系，即基金流量随着经济政策不确定性的升高而增加。2) 投资者情绪在经济政策不确定性与基金流量的关系中起中介效应。

Abstract: Open-end fund is a kind of security investment mode of risk sharing and interest coexistence, and its change always affects the development of the stock market. Exploring how macroeconomic policies affect the performance of equity funds is helpful to better understand the possible economic consequences caused by policy uncertainty and provide reference value for policy makers. In addition, practice shows that investors are affected by emotions when making investment decisions, such as “herding effect” and “disposal effect”, which are common in the open-end fund market. Therefore, it is of great significance to explore the impact of macroeconomic policies on fund flow from the perspective of investor sentiment, whether it is for fund managers, individual investors or even the entire open-end fund market. In this paper, the data of China’s open-end stock funds established before 2010 and surviving from 2010 to 2023 are taken as the research object to comprehensively consider the above issues. The results show that: 1) There is a significant positive relationship between fund flow and the frequency of macroeconomic policy adjustment, that is, fund flow increases with the increase of economic policy uncertainty. 2) Investor sentiment plays an intermediary role in the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and fund flow.