股票收益率的数字规律——以银行为例

Numerical Patterns of Stock Returns—Taking Banks as an Example

摘要: 采用上市银行股票收益率与大盘指数收益率数据，基于有效市场理论、羊群效应等行为金融理论提出了本福德定律与上市银行股票收益率关系的2个理论假设，实证分析了上市公司股票收益率首个非0数字的分布规律与本福德定律的相关度，以及相关度对股票收益率相对大盘指数收益率的影响。研究结果表明：当期限足够长时，上市银行股票收益率的首个非0数字分布规律与本福德定律有较大相关度。且股票日度收益率的首个非0数字分布规律与本福德定律相关度越低，股票收益率与基准指数的收益率之差也越低。基于这些结论，文章启示投资者在选择收益率更高的股票时，可以将股票收益率的首个非0数字分布规律与本福德定律的相关度作为参考。

Abstract: Using data from listed bank stock returns and market index returns, two theoretical hypotheses were proposed based on behavioral finance theories such as efficient market theory and herd effect regarding the relationship between Benford’s Law and listed bank stock returns. Empirical analysis was conducted on the correlation between the distribution of the first non-zero number of listed company stock returns and Benford’s Law, as well as the impact of correlation on stock returns relative to market index returns. The research results indicate that when the term is sufficiently long, there is a significant correlation between the first non-zero number distribution pattern of the stock returns of listed banks and Benford’s law. The lower the correlation between the first non-zero number distribution pattern of stock daily returns and Benford’s law, the lower the difference between stock returns and benchmark index returns. Based on these conclusions, the article suggests that investors can refer to the correlation between the first non-zero number distribution of stock returns and Benford’s law when choosing stocks with higher returns.