气候变化对湘江流域降水气温和蒸发的影响变化预测
Climate Change Impact on Hydro-Climate Variables in the Xiangjiang Basin
DOI: 10.12677/JWRR.2013.21011, PDF, HTML,  被引量    国家自然科学基金支持
作者: 肖 义*, 唐少华：湖南省水利厅；陈 华*, 胡林娟：武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室
关键词: 气候变化；湘江；统计降尺度；气温；降水；蒸发；Climate Change; Xiangjiang Basin; Statistical Downscaling Method; Temperature; Precipitation; Evaporation
摘要: 通过收集和整理湘江流域历史水文气象资料，利用统计降尺度方法建立湘江流域气温、降水和蒸发等要素同全球气候模式大尺度因子的统计关系，分析和预测了未来湘江流域水文气象要素的变化情况。研究结果表明，未来2010~2099年湘江流域气温和蒸发有较明显的上升趋势，降水变化趋势不明显。
Abstract: Based on the collection of historical hydro-climate data, such as precipitation, temperature and evaporation in the Xiangjiang Basin, the relationship between the local hydro-climate variables and large scale climate predictors of GCM has been established by using Automated Statistical Downscaling model. The future change of those hydro-climate variables was predicted by using this technical frame during the period of 2010-2099 inthis basin. The results showed that temperature and evaporation will increase significantly, while precipitation has no significant change trend in future.
文章引用：肖义, 唐少华, 陈华, 胡林娟. 气候变化对湘江流域降水气温和蒸发的影响变化预测[J]. 水资源研究, 2013, 2(1): 70-75. http://dx.doi.org/10.12677/JWRR.2013.21011

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