嘉陵江流域水文特征分析与径流反推

Analysis of Hydrological Characteristics and Runoff Inversion in Jialing River Basin

摘要: 嘉陵江作为长江上游的重要支流，其水文特征对区域生态环境和水资源管理具有深远影响。本研究旨在深入分析嘉陵江流域的水文特征，揭示其变化规律及驱动机制，以期为水资源评估和管理提供科学依据。研究采用DEM数据和ArcGIS软件模拟分析地形水系，结合CPC降水数据、水文站实测数据(1979~2019年)探讨降水和径流量的变化规律。通过子流域划分、河网生成、敏感性分析等方法，评估了流域的水文平衡特征。结果显示，嘉陵江流域河网密度为0.197 km/km²，与径流系数呈负相关，且1984~2002年为降水减少期，2003~2019年为降水增多期。流域的平均径流量呈减少趋势，尤其是1979~1988年、1989~1998年。嘉陵江流域的水文特征受气候变化、人类活动的显著影响。降水量的减少是导致径流量减少的主要原因，而河网密度的变化则反映流域水文条件的时空异质性。

Abstract: As an important tributary of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, the hydrological characteristics of the Jialing River have a profound impact on regional ecological environment and water resource management. This study aims to deeply analyze the hydrological characteristics of the Jialing River Basin, and reveal its changing patterns and driving mechanisms, and provide scientific basis for water resource assessment and management. The study used DEM data and ArcGIS software to simulate and analyze terrain and water systems, combined with CPC precipitation data and hydrological station measurement data (1979~2019) to explore the changes law in precipitation and runoff. The hydrological balance characteristics of the watershed were evaluated through methods such as sub watershed division, river network generation, and sensitivity analysis. The results show that the river network density in the Jialing River Basin is 0.197 km/km², and there is a negative correlation with the runoff coefficient. From 1984 to 2002 is a period of decreasing precipitation, while the period from 2003 to 2019 is increasing. The average runoff of the watershed showed a decreasing trend, especially from 1979 to 1988 and 1989 to 1998. The hydrological characteristics of the Jialing River Basin are significantly influenced by climate change and human activities. The decrease in precipitation is the main reason for the decrease in runoff, while the change in river network density reflects the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of hydrological conditions in the watershed.