我国不同气候区温度和降水演变特征分析

Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation Evolution Characteristics in Different Climate Regions of China

摘要: 为研究近几十年我国不同气候区温度和降水的演变特征，文章使用英国国家大气科学中心制作的CRU TS数据中的降水量及潜在蒸散量资料将我国划分为湿润气候区、过渡气候区以及干旱气候区，并使用SVD分解的方法对温度资料与降水量资料进行处理，分析它们的时空演变特征及相互关系。结果表明：三个气候区的平均温度和降水的时间演变趋势均为上升，其中降水量的增长速率从高到低依次为过渡气候区、湿润气候区、干旱气候区；温度的增长速率从高到低依次为干旱气候区、过渡气候区、湿润气候区。各气候区温度增长率的空间分布特征大致为西部小于东部，且受海拔影响大。使用SVD分解分析各气候区降水量随温度的演变趋势，得出结论：随着干旱气候区的温度升高，塔里木盆地西部以及内蒙古西部呈现出“暖湿化”趋势，塔里木盆地东部以及吐鲁番盆地地区呈现出“暖干化”趋势。随着湿润气候区温度升高，陕西南部、湘赣粤地区与大兴安岭以北呈现出“暖干化”趋势，其余地区均呈现出“暖湿化”趋势。随着过渡气候区的温度升高，青藏高原中部呈现出“暖湿化”的趋势，而内蒙古高原东部呈现出“暖干化”趋势。

Abstract: In order to study the evolution characteristics of temperature and precipitation in different climate zones in China in recent decades, this paper uses the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data in the CRU TS data produced by the National Center for Atmospheric Sciences in the United Kingdom to divide China into humid climate zone, transitional climate zone and arid climate zone. It uses the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) to process the temperature data and precipitation data to analyze their temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and interrelationships. Results indicate that the mean temperature and precipitation exhibit upward trends across all three climatic zones, with precipitation increasing at a higher rate in the transitional zone, humid climatic zone, and arid climatic zone in descending order. Temperature shows a higher rate of increase in the arid climatic zone, transitional climatic zone, and humid climatic zone, respectively. Spatial distribution of temperature increase rates generally reveals lower values in the western regions, heavily influenced by altitude. SVD analysis reveals evolving trends of precipitation with temperature in each climatic zone. In the arid climatic zone, as temperatures rise, a “warm-humid” trend is observed in the western Tarim Basin and western Inner Mongolia, while a “warm-dry” trend is evident in these zones. In the humid climatic zone, as temperatures increase, southern Shaanxi, the Hunan-Guangdong-Jiangxi region, and areas north of the Greater Khingan Mountains exhibit a “warm-dry” trend, while other areas show a “warm-humid” trend. As temperatures rise in the transitional climatic zone, a “warm-humid” trend is observed in the central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, while the eastern Inner Mongolia Plateau exhibits a “warm-dry” trend.