四川盆地太阳总辐射变化规律及未来趋势分析

Analysis of the Change Pattern and Future Trend of Solar Radiation in the Sichuan Basin

摘要: 基于1961~2018年14个气象站点实测的日照时数，利用适合四川盆地总辐射计算的经验公式估算出太阳总辐射，对其时空分布特征及其未来变化趋势进行了分析，结果表明：1) 观测期间年太阳总辐射呈极显著下降趋势，气候倾向率达到了−52.9 MJ∙m⁻²∙(10a)⁻¹，但就具体过程来看表现为上升、下降和上升三个阶段。年太阳总辐射在1976~1980年这段时间内发生了突变，存在12年的显著周期变化特征。2) 太阳总辐射在四川盆地中部地区为低值中心(大约3500 MJ∙m⁻²)，然后由此向北和向西南均呈增加趋势。3) 年太阳总辐射未来趋势与过去趋势相反，即呈增加趋势，但未来趋势的持续性较弱，且过去状态对未来状态的影响时间仅有3年。

Abstract: Based on the solar radiation measured by 14 meteorological stations from 1980~2018, the total solar radiation was estimated using an empirical formula suitable for the calculation of total radiation in the Sichuan Basin, and its spat io-temporal distribution characteristics and future change trends were analyzed. The results showed that: 1) during the observation period, Annual total solar radiation showed a very significant downward trend, and the climate trend rate reached −52.9 MJ∙m⁻²∙(10a)⁻¹. However, during the change of solar radiation, there were three stages: rising, falling and rising. The annual total solar radiation suddenly changed during the period from 1976 to 1980, with a significant 12-year periodic change. 2) Total solar radiation was a low value center in the central region of the Sichuan Basin (about 3500 MJ∙m⁻²), and then increased northward and southwestward therefrom. 3) The future trend of annual total solar radiation is opposite to the past trend, that is, it shows an increasing trend, but the sustainability of the future trend is weak, and the influence of the past state on the future state is only 3 years.