台湾纸烟管理政策对需求影响之探讨

The Impacts of Regulation Policy on Cigarette Demand

摘要: 本文探讨主要烟品管理政策，如烟盒加注警示标语、烟害防制法以及课征健康捐等对国产与进口烟品需求的影响，以建议政府规划有效之烟品管理政策。研究方法采用1971~2009年之纸烟消费量及零售价格等时间序列数据以近似无关回归(SUR)估计国产与进口纸烟之需求函数。模型中并以虚拟变量量化台湾纸烟开放进口、烟盒警示标语、烟害防制法以及烟品健康捐等管理政策之推行。此外建立吸烟风险讯息指数以评估吸烟危害人体健康讯息对需求之影响。实证结果发现，样本期间国产纸烟及进口纸烟之价格弹性分别为−0.88及−0.47，所得弹性则分别为0.06及0.18；国产纸烟对进口纸烟之交叉弹性为0.40，进口纸烟对国产纸烟之交叉弹性为0.63。此外，吸烟健康风险讯息、烟盒警告标语以及烟品健康捐对国内纸烟需求具有负面影响，烟品开放进口对国产纸烟消费具负面影响；但对进口纸烟消费具正面影响。最后，烟害防制法对国产纸烟需求具负面影响；对进口烟品需求的影响并不明显。综合实证发现，本文建议以价制量是有效之纸烟管理政策，但政府应再提高烟品健康福利捐之税赋，并将烟品健康福利捐，改为从价计税，才能更有效降低国人对进口纸烟的需求。 This paper aims to analysis the comprehensive influence of regulation policy such as, Tobacco Hazards Prevention Act, Tobacco Health and Welfare Tax, on demand for cigarette inTaiwan. Annual data through 1971 to 2009 are used to estimate the demand for cigarettes by applying SUR model. The impacts of deregulation of foreign cigarettes imports, anti-smoking campaigns on cigarette case, the implementation of Tobacco Hazards Prevention Act, and levy of Tobacco Health and Welfare Tax are taken into account by using dummy variables. The empirical results indicate that the price elasticities for domestic and imported cigarettes are −0.88 and −0.47, respectively. The income elasticities are 0.06 for domestic and 0.18 for imported cigarettes and the cross-price elasticities are 0.40 for domestic and 0.63 for imported cigarettes. The regulation policies of revelation of cigarette health information, anti-smoking campaigns on cigarette case, and the Tobacco Health and Welfare Tax have significantly negative effects on both domestic and imported cigarette consumption. In addition, opening the markets to imported cigarettes has had a significantly negative effect on domestic cigarette consumption, but had a significantly positive effect on imported cigarette consumption. Finally, Tobacco Hazards Prevention Act has a significantly negative effect on domestic cigarette consumption, but had an insignificantly effect on imported cigarette consumption. In conclusions, the effects of regulation policy on domestic cigarettes are more significant than on imported cigarettes. Taiwan Government should increase the amount of the Tobacco Health and Welfare Tax, and transform it from unit tax into ad valorem tax in order to effectively reduce the demand on imported cigarettes.

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