中国对RCEP其他成员国纺织品出口的影响因素——基于CMS模型

Influencing Factors of China’s Textile Exports to Other RCEP Member Countries—Based on Constant Market Share Model

摘要: 本文利用联合国商品贸易数据库，通过恒定市场份额模型(CMS模型)深入研究中国对RCEP其他成员国纺织品出口的影响因素。并通过分析这些因素，为政府和企业提供有针对性的政策建议和市场战略，以实现纺织品出口的增长和优化。本文发现结构效应、竞争力效应、交叉效应都推动了我国对RCEP国家纺织品的出口，其中结构效应的贡献最高，交叉效应次之，竞争力效应贡献较低。经二层分解后发现增长效应发挥了主要作用；同时中国出口的纺织品结构与RCEP市场进口需求相适应；竞争力效应的分解显示中国特定产品的竞争力仍有待提升。

Abstract: This paper uses UN Comtrade to conduct an in-depth study of the factors affecting China’s textile exports to other RCEP member countries through the Constant-Market-Share Model (CMS model). It also provides targeted policy recommendations and market strategies for governments and enterprises to achieve the growth and optimization of textile exports. This paper finds that the structural effect, competitiveness effect, and cross effect all promote China’s textile exports to RCEP countries, with the structural effect making the highest contribution, the cross effect the second highest, and the competitiveness effect making a lower contribution. After two-level decomposition, it is found that the growth effect plays a major role; at the same time, the textile structure of China’s exports is compatible with the import demand of the RCEP market; the decomposition of the competitiveness effect shows that the competitiveness of China’s specific products still needs to be improved.