基于贝叶斯网络的超市果蔬供应链风险评价研究

Research on the Risk Assessment of Supermarket Fruit and Vegetable Supply Chain Based on Bayesian Networks

摘要: 超市作为果蔬农产品供应链的末端节点，直接影响着果蔬农产品供应链的整体水平和风险状态。因此本文以超市果蔬农产品供应链风险评估作为研究重点，提出基于贝叶斯网络的超市果蔬农产品供应链风险评估模型，旨在有效控制超市果蔬农产品供应链风险，提升果蔬农产品供应链管理水平。首先通过文献综述法和问卷调查法建立了风险评价指标体系；其次基于解释结构模型构建了超市果蔬农产品供应链风险评价贝叶斯网络模型；最后通过实证研究和多维度的推理分析筛选出了关键风险因素，并提出风险应对策略。通过研究表明，S连锁超市当前果蔬供应链风险发生的概率较小，为6.48%，但果蔬损耗风险概率高达28.7%，需重点关注。本文将解释结构模型与贝叶斯网络理论相结合，应用于超市果蔬农产品供应链风险评估领域，体现了不同风险评价指标间的相互影响关系，为超市果蔬供应链风险评估提供新思路。

Abstract: As the end node of the supply chain for fruit and vegetable agricultural products, supermarkets directly affect the overall level and risk status of the supply chain. Therefore, this article focuses on the risk assessment of supermarket fruit and vegetable agricultural product supply chains. It combines interpretative structural modeling with Bayesian network theory to introduce research into the management of supermarket fruit and vegetable agricultural product supply chain risks. A Bayesian network-based model for assessing the risk of supermarket fruit and vegetable agricultural product supply chains is proposed in order to effectively control the risks associated with these supply chains and improve their management level. Firstly, a risk evaluation index system was established through literature review and questionnaire survey methods; Secondly, a Bayesian network model for evaluating the supply chain risk of supermarket fruit and vegetable agricultural products was constructed based on the interpretative structural modeling approach; Finally, through empirical research and multi-dimensional reasoning analysis, key risk factors were identified to verify the feasibility of this article. This study provides new ideas for improving the safety level of supermarket fruit and vegetable agricultural product supply chains and provides the theoretical basis for risk management decisions by supply chain managers.