天气预报模式WRFV3.3在三峡库区的应用及参数敏感性试验研究

The Application of Weather Forecast Model WRFV3.3 in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area and the Parameters Sensitivity Analytics

摘要: 为实现长江三峡库区的高精度降水预报，利用新一代天气预报模式WRFV3.3对三峡库区两场典型降水过程进行模拟试验，并采用TS评分与极差分析法分析其不同参数化方案组合对降水模拟的影响，以评估WRF模式在三峡库区的区域适用性以及物理过程参数敏感性。结果表明，WRFV3.3能够较好地模拟三峡库区典型降水过程，且当WRF模式中微物理过程为Lin et al.方案、积云对流参数化方案为Simplified Arakawa-Schubert方案时，比其他参数化方案组合能得到更好的模拟效果；通过极差分析法比较发现，对于小雨和暴雨量级的降水，微物理过程方案和积云对流参数化方案的影响度接近，但对于中雨和大雨量级的降水，微物理过程方案的影响占主导地位。

Abstract: In order to achieve high accuracy for precipitation forecast in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, a new generation of numerical weather model WRFV3.3 was applied to simulate two typical precipitation events in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, for evaluating WRF’s applicability in the research area. The im-pacts of different parameterization schemes combination on precipitation simulation were studied by adopt-ing TS and variance analysis, for analyzing sensitivity of the physical process parameterization schemes. The results indicate that WRFV3.3 can simulate typical precipitation events well in the Three Gorges Reservoir area. When the micro-physical process scheme is Lin et al. and the cumulus convective parameterization scheme is Simplified Arakawa-Schubert, the simulation of WRF is better than other parameterization scheme combinations. Comparison of variance analysis shows that the impact of the micro-physical process parame-terization schemes on precipitation is similar as the cumulus convective parameterization schemes when rain grade is 0.1 mm and 50 mm, while impact of the micro-physical process parameterization schemes is domi-nating when rain grade is 10 mm and 25 mm.