台湾低碳电力结构优化分析

Optimal Analysis of Low-Carbon Power Infrastructure of Taiwan

摘要: 本研究假设CCS未来能成功应用在燃煤与燃气发电上之情景，届时，不管是否有废核，在无须大幅扩充再生能源与核电，并化石燃料发电容量接近BAU的情况下，整体发电与减排目标皆能充分满足，并且，发电成本最多增加约34%。本研究结论是：CCS是台湾达成低碳电力结构最经济且最有效的方法。然而，CCS短中期内能否商业化尚是一个疑问，加上台湾缺乏化石能源，而再生能源则蕴藏丰富，不可讳言，再生能源即使短中期内无法成为发电主流，但是，科技长期进步与累积，终必克服其供电不稳定与价格偏高的缺点，以能源安全角度来看，再生能源的发展绝对是台湾能源政策上不可或缺的重要一环。

Abstract: The study assumes that CCS can be successfully applied on the coal-fired and gas-fired power generation in the future, then regardless of the existence of nuclear power, without the substantial expanding of renewables, and with the fossil fuel generation capacity close to the BAU scenario, the overall power and emission reduction objectives can be fully met, with the increase of power cost up to about 34%. This study concludes that CCS is the most economic and effective method for Taiwan to construct a low-carbon power infrastructure. However, the commercialization of CCS in the short-and-medium term is still a question, plus it is no doubt that Taiwan lacks fossil energy but reserves abundant resources of renewable energy. Even renewable energy cannot become power mainstream in the short-and-medium term, under the technology’s progress and accumulation in the long-term, at end the renewables will overcome their shortcomings of power instability and partially high price. In the view angle of national energy security, the development of renewable energy is an indispensable ring of Taiwan energy policy.