基于FLUS模型的区域交通与土地利用一体化碳排放研究——以苍南县为例

Research on Integrated Carbon Emissions of Regional Transportation and Land Use Based on FLUS Model—A Case Study of Cangnan County

摘要: 本文以苍南县为例，研究国土空间规划视角下交通与土地利用一体化的碳排放情况。通过分析区域交通与土地利用的互馈机理，结合土地利用模拟预测模型与交通四阶段模型，构建了一体化系统，模拟不同发展情景下的碳排放。结果表明：1) 无一体化反馈的Kappa精度为0.795，总体精度达0.893，而在一体化反馈下的Kappa精度达0.893，总体精度为0.915，表明一体化反馈能提高模型精度，实现更精确的土地利用模拟。2) 在不同发展情景下，县城主建成区的碳排放最高，需重点关注。3) 结合国土空间土地利用空间布局分析，生态保护优先情景下交通碳排放较其他情景显著增加的主要原因是建设用地过于集中，碳源类用地规划失衡。模拟结果为区域规划提供参考，建议苍南县增加碳汇用地，优化交通结构，推广新能源汽车，以促进碳减排和可持续发展。

Abstract: This paper takes Cangnan County as an example to study the carbon emissions from the integration of transport and land use under the perspective of territorial spatial planning. By analyzing the mutual feedback mechanism of regional transport and land use, and combining the land use simulation prediction model with the four-phase transportation model, an integrated system is constructed to simulate the carbon emissions under different development scenarios. The results show that: 1) the Kappa accuracy without integrated feedback is 0.795, and the overall accuracy reaches 0.893, while the Kappa accuracy with integrated feedback reaches 0.893, and the overall accuracy reaches 0.915, which indicates that the integrated feedback improves the model accuracy and achieves a more accurate land use simulation. 2) Under different development scenarios, the main built-up area of the county city has the highest carbon emissions, which needs to be focused on. 3) Combined with the analysis of the spatial layout of land use in the national territory space, the main reason for the significant increase in carbon emissions from transport under the ecological protection priority scenario compared with other scenarios is the over-concentration of construction land and the imbalance in the planning of land use in the carbon source category. The simulation results provide a reference for regional planning, and it is recommended that Cangnan County increase the land for carbon sinks, optimize the transport structure, and promote new energy vehicles to promote carbon emission reduction and sustainable development.