《Automation of Electric Power Systems》
Interval-based multi-layer decomposed calibration method for spatial load forecasting
作者:
C Wang，J Xiao，F Luo
关键词:
spatial load forecasting ； multi-layer decomposition ； calibration ； interval algorithm
摘要:
This paper presents a new interval-based calibration method for spatial load forecasting (SLF), in which can deal with uncertainties in data collection and forecasting efficiently. Firstly, an interval-based SLF model with the multi-layer decomposition structure is set up, which divides forecasting units into gross load layer, data collection layer and simulation layer. This model incorporates both advantages of trending and simulation methods of SLF; and can effectively reduce work in data collection and maintenance as well as assure adequate spatial resolution in land decomposition and precision. Further, an interval-based algorithm based on the model is addressed to resolve the spatial load calibration problem, which is extremely tough and time-consuming in practical SLF processes. The proposed method can estimate load distribution with incomplete information, which provides a powerful tool for calibration of spatial load forecasting results and decision-making. A practical SLF case has shown the applicability and the effectiveness of the proposed method.
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