标题:
基于丁克问题的人口结构预测Research of the Population Structure
Prediction Based on Dink Problem
作者:
刘欢, 方巧, 张昆鹏
关键字:
丁克, 人口老龄化, 回归, 人口移算, 人口结构DINK; Population Aging; Return; Population Shift Operator; Population Structure
期刊名称:
《Aging Research》, Vol.1 No.1, 2014-03-28
摘要:
人口的增长是引起世界各国普遍关注的问题。随着社会的发展，科技的进步，人们的生活节奏在逐步加快，人才之间的竞争也在愈演愈烈，这些使得越来越多的人不愿意在业余时间为子女操心操劳，而要集中精力为自身的存在与发展拼搏，加之，养育孩子的经济负担越来越重，所以“丁克”家庭的数目也越来越多。因此许多学者担心：“丁克”家庭的大量出现，加剧了人口老龄化问题。本文首先采用一元回归对丁克人口进行预测，然后使用预测的丁克数据运用人口移算的方法对总人口进行预测，并分析人口结构，认为我国老龄化现象日益明显。
The population growth is causing widespread concern around the world. With social development and technological advances, people gradually accelerate pace of life, and talent competition is becoming intensively, which makes more and more people not willing to worry about their children in their spare time, but to concentrate on their own existence and development. In addition, the economic burden of raising a child is getting heavier and heavier, so the number of “DINK” family is also increasing. Many scholars are worried that “DINK” families have exacerbated the aging of population. First this paper uses simple regression to predict the population of dink. Based on the predicted dink data, we use the method of demographic shift operator to predict the total population and analyze the demographic structure, which shows that the aging phenomenon has become increasingly evident.