标题:
基于SWAT模型的城市水源地对未来气候变化的水文响应Water Resources Responses to Climate Changes in Xi’an Heihe River Basin Based on SWAT Model
作者:
李彦漫, 霍艾迪, 刘睿翀, 陈莎莎, 王晓峰, 李继东
关键字:
黑河流域, SWAT模型, 径流模拟, 水文响应Heihe River Basin; SWAT Model; Runoff Simulation; Response to Climate Change
期刊名称:
《Journal of Water Resources Research》, Vol.2 No.5, 2013-10-29
摘要:
西安黑河流域的气候变化趋势和对水资源的影响，将直接关系到西安市约800万人的饮水问题。因此分析研究西安黑河流域水资源对气候变化的响应特点，可为地面调水、应对气候变化的不利影响和更好地保护城市水源地的水资源提供科学依据。本研究以分布式水循环模型为基础，利用西安黑河流域2005~2011年过去7年的水文站实测数据，对2020s~2050s未来40年西安黑河金盆水库入口陈河水文站汛期、非汛期的年径流过程进行了模拟和预测。研究结果表明：西安黑河流域未来水资源量在未来40年内呈现先减少后增加的趋势，其平均径流量将比基准年均有所增减，变幅分别为：−11.0%、−6.4%、7.2%、190%；尤其是在50s汛期平均径流量达到最大值，西安黑河中下游地区防洪形势严峻。
Future Climate changes and its influences on water
resources in Xi’an Heihe River concern the drinking water problems of 8 million
people in Xi’an City. Therefore, it is very important to analyze the characteristics
of water resource in response to climate changes for providing scientific
foundation to ground water diversion, dealing with adverse effect of climate
changes and protecting the water sources areas in Xi’an Heihe River. Years 2005-2011
were set as the base period, and monthly runoffs were simulated using SWAT in
the base period in Xi’an Heihe Basin. Based on the accurate runoff simulation
of the base period, each possible water resource situation under climate
changes scenarios according to the most possible climate change predictions was
simulated in Xi’an Heihe Basin. The result shows that in the future, Xi’an Heihe
River Basin water resources quantity in the next 40 years showed a trend of
increase after the first reduce, the average annual runoff growth is
respectively: −11.0%, −6.4%, 7.2%, 190% than benchmark; Especially average
flood season runoff reach maximum in the 50s, and the flood control situation is
serious in the middle and lower reaches of Heihe region.