气候变化研究快报  >> Vol. 4 No. 4 (October 2015)

中国南方暴雨日数的气候变化特征
Climate Change Characteristics of Rainstorm Days in South China

DOI: 10.12677/CCRL.2015.44026, PDF, HTML, XML,  被引量 下载: 1,893  浏览: 8,342  国家科技经费支持

作者: 陈少勇*:中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,甘肃 兰州;白银市气象局,甘肃 白银;张晓芬, 郭俊瑞*, 郭玉珍:白银市气象局,甘肃 白银

关键词: 暴雨日数时空分布气候变化中国南方Rainstorm Day Temporal and Spatial Distribution Climate Change South of China

摘要: 本文利用中国南方地区225个测站1961~2010年逐日降水量资料,采用趋势分析、Monte Carlo检验、滑动T检验、Mann-Kendall分析等方法,分析了50年来南方地区暴雨日数的时空分布特征及其变化规律。结果表明:华南、长江中下游平原和成都平原是相对多暴雨区。大多数地方暴雨日数趋势不显著,东部略有增多,西部略有减少趋势。但成都平原显著减少,1992年发生突变,长江中下游的暴雨日数有较明显的增多趋势,1986发生突变;在季节分布上,冬季最少,夏季最多,春季多于秋季。冬季暴雨主要出现在华南,略有增多趋势;春季主要出现在华南、长江中下游平原,变化趋势不明显;夏季暴雨最多且有显著增多趋势。其中,华南略有增多,长江中下游显著增多,成都平原显著减少;秋季主要出现在滇南–华南–浙西等沿海地区,无明显趋势;受东亚季风影响,南方各地暴雨日数都为单峰型,其中成都平原8月为峰值,其余各地6月为峰值,成都平原暴雨集中在7~8月,长江中下游平原集中在5~6月,华南集中在5~8月。在全球气候变暖背景下,中国南方暴雨日数响应气候变化,增温显著区,暴雨增多,增温不显著区,暴雨减少。
Abstract: Using the day by day precipitation data at 225 stations in the south area of China in the period of 1961-2010, with the trend analysis, Monte Carlo test method, the sliding T test, Mann-Kendall, etc., the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of rainfall day and evolution rule above rainstorm in the south of China for 50 years are analyzed. Results show that the Southern China, the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and the Chengdu Plain are relatively more rains-torm areas. Rainstorm day trend is not significant in most areas; there is a slight increase in the east and a slight decrease in the west. But rainstorm days have significantly reduced in Chengdu Plain. There was a remarkable mutation in 1992. Rainstorm days of the Yangtze River have an obvious increasing trend. There was a remarkable mutation in 1986. As for seasonal distribution, it is the least in winter and most in summer. It is more in spring than in autumn. Winter rainstorm mainly occurs in southern China and it has a slight increasing trend; spring rainstorm mainly occurs in southern China, the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River. It changes insignificantly. Rainstorm in summer is the most and has a significant increase trend. Among them, a slight increase is in southern China and an obvious increase is in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River. It reduces significantly in Chengdu Plain; in autumn. Rainstorm occurs mainly in southern Yunnan-southern China-western Zhejiang and other coastal areas, no clear trend; rainstorm days of south areas form a unimodal sequence. Chengdu Plain reaches its peak in August and the rest areas reach the peak in June. Rainstorm of Chengdu Plain mainly occurs in the period from July to August. It is concentrated in the period of May to June in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River. It is concentrated in the period of May to August in southern China. Under the background of global warming, rainstorm days in the south of China are response to climate change. Rainstorm increases in significant warming area and reduces in insignificant warming area.

文章引用: 陈少勇, 张晓芬, 郭俊瑞, 郭玉珍. 中国南方暴雨日数的气候变化特征[J]. 气候变化研究快报, 2015, 4(4): 228-236. http://dx.doi.org/10.12677/CCRL.2015.44026

参考文献

[1] 陈少勇, 王劲松, 石圆圆, 等 (2009) 中国东部季风区近46年来年平均气温的变化. 资源科学, 3, 462-471.
[2] 高正华 (2013) 1961~2011年中国降水时空变化特征分析. 气候变化研究快报, 2, 147-152.
[3] 王志福, 钱永甫 (2009) 中国极端降水事件的频数和强度特征. 水科学进展, 1, 1-9.
[4] 翟盘茂, 王萃萃, 李威 (2007) 极端降水事件变化的观测研究. 气候变化研究进展, 3, 144-148.
[5] 鲍名, 黄荣辉 (2006) 近40年我国暴雨的年代际变化特征. 大气科学, 6, 1057-1067.
[6] 陈少勇, 任燕, 乔立 (2005) 中国西北地区大雨以上降水的气候变化特征. 资源科学, 5, 958-965.
[7] Zhai, P.-M., Zhang, X.-B., Wan, H., et al. (2005) Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China. Climate, 18, 1096-1108.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-3318.1
[8] 李红梅, 周天军, 宇如聪 (2008) 近四十年我国东部盛夏日降水特性变化分析. 大气科学, 2, 258-370.
[9] 徐桂玉, 杨修群 (2002) 我国南方暴雨一些气候特征的统计分析. 气候与环境研究, 4, 447-456.
[10] 彭丽英, 王谦谦, 马慧 (2006) 华南前汛期暴雨气候特征的研究. 南京气象学院学报, 2, 249-253.
[11] 余功梅 (1996) 华南地区近40年降水的气候特征. 热带气象学报, 3, 252-256.
[12] 张婷, 魏凤英 (2009) 华南地区汛期极端降水的概率分布特征. 气象学报, 3, 442-451.
[13] 倪允琪, 周秀骥 (2005) 我国长江中下游梅雨锋暴雨研究的进展. 气象, 1, 9-12.
[14] 谢五三, 田红 (2011) 近50年安徽省暴雨气候特征. 气象科技, 2, 160-164.
[15] 张艳梅, 江志红, 王冀, 等 (2008) 贵州夏季暴雨的气候特征. 气候变化研究进展, 3, 182-186.
[16] 施能, 黄先香, 杨扬 (2003) 1948~2000年全球陆地年降水量场趋势变化的时、空特征. 大气科学, 6, 971-982.
[17] 魏凤英 (2007) 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术. 2版, 气象出版社, 北京, 77-82.
[18] 陈忠明, 闵文彬, 缪强, 等 (2004) 高原涡与西南涡耦合作用的个例分析. 高原气象, 1, 75-80.
[19] 卢敬华 (1986) 西南低涡概论. 气象出版社, 北京, 275.
[20] 任小玢, 董治宝, 周正朝 (2012) 近50年来四川盆地降水日数的时空变化特征. 水土保持通报, 4, 65-70.
[21] 黄荣辉, 顾雷, 陈际龙, 等 (2008) 东亚季风系统的时空变化及其对我国气候异常影响的最近研究进展. 大气科学, 4, 691-719.
[22] 张庆云, 陶诗言, 张顺利 (2003) 夏季长江流域暴雨洪涝灾害的天气气候条件. 大气科学, 6, 1018-1030.
[23] 胡宜昌, 董文杰, 何勇 (2007) 21世纪初极端天气气候事件研究进展. 地球科学进展, 10, 1066-1075.
[24] Gao, X.J., Zhao, Z.C. and Filippo, G. (2002) Changes of extreme events in regional climate simulations over East Asia. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 5, 927-942.