# 三大产业对通货膨胀的非对称性作用及实证分析The Asymmetric Effect of Three Industries on Inflation and Empirical Analysis

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This paper examines the inflation of industrial structure based on theoretical models with survey data for different economic entities. Firstly, we establish the monetary policy model of multi-production department and estimate the model parameters based on the statistical data. Then the inflation rate of the following years is predicted by the model, and is compared with the inflation rate of the single production department. The analysis shows that the forecast value of the monetary policy model of the multi-production sectors is more accurate and effective than the model of single-production department. Meanwhile, it is found that the primary industries and secondary/tertiary industries have negative and positive contribution to inflation in the economic entities with the higher proportion of primary industry, respectively. On the contrary, the tertiary industries and primary/secondary industries have negative and positive contribution to inflation in the economic entities with the higher proportion of secondary and tertiary industry, respectively. While the contributions of the secondary industry to inflation for almost economies are positive. We find that the feature of inflation possesses asymmetric effect for the three industries, and the influence form is different for economic entities with different industrial structure. This result provides some theoretical enlightenment to adjust and control inflation for government.

1. 引言

2. 模型构建及求解

2.1. 巴罗–戈登模型即单生产部门货币政策模型回顾

$M\left(x,y\right)=-c{\pi }^{2}-{\left(y-k\stackrel{¯}{y}\right)}^{2},\text{\hspace{0.17em}}c>0,\text{\hspace{0.17em}}k>1$

$y=\stackrel{¯}{y}+\beta \left(\pi -{\pi }^{\prime }\right),\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\beta >0$

$\begin{array}{l}\mathrm{max}M\left(\pi ,y\right)=-c{\pi }^{2}-{\left(y-ky\right)}^{2}\\ \text{s}\text{.t}\text{.}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}y=\stackrel{¯}{y}+\beta \left(\pi -{\pi }^{\prime }\right)\end{array}$ (1)

${\pi }^{\prime }={\pi }^{*}={c}^{-1}\beta \left(k-1\right)\stackrel{¯}{y}$ (2)

2.2. 多生产部门货币政策模型构建

$\begin{array}{l}\mathrm{max}M\left(\pi ,{y}_{1},{y}_{2},{y}_{3}\right)=-\stackrel{¯}{c}{\pi }^{2}-{\left({y}_{1}-{k}_{1}\stackrel{¯}{{y}_{1}}\right)}^{2}-{\left({y}_{2}-{k}_{2}\stackrel{¯}{{y}_{2}}\right)}^{2}-{\left({y}_{3}-{k}_{3}\stackrel{¯}{{y}_{3}}\right)}^{2}\\ \text{s}\text{.t}\text{.}\\ \text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}{y}_{1}=\stackrel{¯}{{y}_{1}}+{\beta }_{1}\left(\pi -{\pi }_{1}\right)\\ \text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}{y}_{2}=\stackrel{¯}{{y}_{2}}+{\beta }_{2}\left(\pi -{\pi }_{2}\right)\\ \text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}{y}_{3}=\stackrel{¯}{{y}_{3}}+{\beta }_{3}\left(\pi -{\pi }_{3}\right)\end{array}$ (3)

${\pi }^{\text{*}}={\stackrel{¯}{c}}^{-1}\left[{\beta }_{1}\left({k}_{1}-1\right){\stackrel{¯}{y}}_{1}+{\beta }_{2}\left({k}_{2}-1\right){\stackrel{¯}{y}}_{2}+{\beta }_{3}\left({k}_{3}-1\right){\stackrel{¯}{y}}_{3}\right]$ .(4)

3. 模型参数估计及相关实证分析

4. 结果分析及模型启示

(a) (b)

Table 1. (a) The parameter estimation in multi-production departments model for different economic entities; (b) The parameter estimation in a single departments model for different economic entities

Table 2. The predicted value and errors of inflation for multi-production and single production departments models in 2012

Table 3. The average proportion of the three industries from 1996 to 2015

Figure 1. The predicted value and errors of inflation for multi-production and single production departments models of different economies in 2012

Figure 2. The asymmetric effect of the three industries on inflation for different economic entities

NOTES

*通讯作者。

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