# 山东省产业结构优化对经济增长的影响—基于17地市的GMM检验The Influence of Industrial Structure Optimization on Economic Growth in Shandong—Based on the GMM Test of 17 Cities

DOI: 10.12677/ASS.2018.73049, PDF, HTML, XML, 下载: 867  浏览: 1,284  国家科技经费支持

Abstract: This paper selects the rationalization of industrial structure and its high degree as indicators to measure the optimization of industrial structure and inspect the process of industrial structure optimization in Shandong Province, and then we use the Generalized Method of moments to estimate the relationship between industrial structure optimization and economic growth. The result shows that the impact of industrial structure rationalization on economic growth is greater than that on industrial structure supererogation, and there is a long-term stable relationship between the industrial structure rationalization and the economic growth, but the relationship between the industrial structure supererogation and the economic growth is uncertain. Accordingly, it is suggested that Shandong province should focus on promoting the development of industrial structure rationalization, and promote the development of industry service under the interconnection of input structure and output structure in different regions.

1. 引言

2. 1978年至今山东省产业结构演进轨迹

Figure 1. Evolution of three industrial structures in Shandong Province from 1978 to 2015

Figure 2. Evolution of employment structure of various industries in Shandong Province during 1978-2015

3. 山东省产业结构优化的度量及特征

3.1. 产业结构优化的度量指标

3.2. 山东省产业结构优化的度量及时段特征

Figure 3. The development track of industrial structure rationalization and advanced development of Shandong Province in 1978-2015

4. 山东省产业结构优化影响经济增长的实证检验

4.1. 变量选取、模型设定与估计方法

$\mathrm{ln}{y}_{it}=\alpha \mathrm{ln}{T}_{it}+\beta \mathrm{ln}{U}_{it}+{\epsilon }_{it}$ (1)

$\mathrm{ln}{y}_{it}={\gamma }_{i}+\alpha \mathrm{ln}{T}_{it}+\beta \mathrm{ln}{U}_{it}+{\alpha }^{\prime }\left(\mathrm{ln}{y}_{it}×\mathrm{ln}{T}_{it}\right)+{\beta }^{\prime }\left(\mathrm{ln}{y}_{it}×\mathrm{ln}{U}_{it}\right)+{\epsilon }_{it}$ (2)

$\Delta \mathrm{ln}{y}_{it}=\alpha \Delta \mathrm{ln}{T}_{it}+\beta \Delta \mathrm{ln}{U}_{it}+{\alpha }^{\prime }\left(\Delta \mathrm{ln}{y}_{it}×\Delta \mathrm{ln}{T}_{it}\right)+{\beta }^{\prime }\left(\Delta \mathrm{ln}{y}_{it}×\Delta \mathrm{ln}{U}_{it}\right)+\Delta {\epsilon }_{it}$ (3)

4.2. 实证结果与分析

Figure 4. The distribution of primary industry in Shandong Province

Figure 5. Distribution of secondary industry in Shandong Province

Figure 6. Distribution of tertiary industry in Shandong Province

Table 1. Regression test results of industrial structure optimization in Shandong province affecting economic growth

5. 政策启示

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