# 渤海沿岸风暴潮极值水位的预测分析Prediction Analysis of Extreme Water Level of Storm Surge along the Coast of Bohai Sea

DOI: 10.12677/AMS.2020.72006, PDF, HTML, XML, 下载: 225  浏览: 737  科研立项经费支持

Abstract: Using the three-dimensional ocean model FVCOM, the storm surges happened in Bohai Sea during 20 years (1987-2006) were reproduced. The simulation data was statistically analyzed by using the general extreme value theory. The future prediction of the extreme water level along the coast of Bohai Sea was studied. The results showed that the extreme water level in different return periods changed significantly, especially at Tanggu and Huanghua Ports. At Tanggu Port, the extreme water level in 20-year and 30-year return periods increased by 7.76% and 10.53% which was higher than the current level. The probability of the serious storm surge at Tanggu Port would increase by 60% in 2030, 85% in 2050 and over 92% in 2100.

1. 引言

2. 模型设置与验证

FVCOM模型是由美国学者陈长胜博士团队开发的非结构网格海洋模型，模型采用有限体积法，该方法具有离散简单，计算高效，具有较强的适应性等优点，模型利用有限差分方法对控制方程进行离散，模型使用三角形网格便于实现对复杂海岸线的拟合 [8]。FVCOM模型目前被广泛用于近岸河口等复杂岸线的模拟，如美国的乔治亚和麻州等河口地区和中国黄渤海海域。

2.1. 模型设置

Figure 1. The topography and water depth of Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea

2.2. 模型验证

3. 模拟结果与分析

3.1. 广义极值理论

Figure 2. The modeled and observed storm surge level at Tanggu Port in Oct. 2003

Figure 3. The modeled and observed water elevation at Tanggu Port in Aug. 2005

$G\left({x}_{i};\mu ,\sigma ,\xi \right)=\mathrm{exp}\left[-{\left(1+\xi \frac{{x}_{i}-\mu }{\sigma }\right)}^{-\frac{1}{\xi }}\right]$ (1)

$U\left(T\right)={\stackrel{^}{G}}^{-1}\left(1-\frac{1}{T}\right)=\mu -\frac{\sigma }{\xi }\left\{1-{\left[-\mathrm{log}\left(1-\frac{1}{T}\right)\right]}^{-\xi }\right\}$ (2)

3.2. 渤海沿岸未来风暴潮极值水位统计分析

3.2.1. 塘沽站风暴潮重现期极值水位分析

Table 1. Comparison of the prediction and literature extreme water level of storm surge in Tanggu Port

Table 2. Prediction of the extreme water level of storm surge in return periods at Tanggu Port

3.2.2. 渤海沿岸三个典型站位的风暴潮极值水位变化预测

Figure 4. Expected fraction of years with extreme water levels of storm surge at Caofeidian, Tanggu and Huanghua Ports

4. 结论与讨论

NOTES

*通讯作者。

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