数字普惠金融与经济增长的非线性效应——基于门槛模型的实证研究

The Nonlinear Effects of Digital Financial Inclusion and Economic Growth—An Empirical Study Based on the Threshold Model

摘要: 信息技术的发展推动普惠金融与数字技术的融合，为中国经济增长提供新的驱动力。本文基于中国31个省市2010~2020年的面板数据，建立固定效应模型，探究数字普惠金融对经济增长的影响。结果表明，发展数字普惠金融可以显著促进经济增长，且存在地区异质性。考虑到经济增长与数字普惠金融间可能的互为因果关系，将核心解释变量与控制变量滞后一期处理，结果表明数字普惠金融仍然能够显著促进经济增长。同时为了检验两者的非线性关系，分区域进行面板门限回归，发现数字普惠金融与西部地区无门槛效应，东、中部地区则可以在越过一定的门槛后，借助数字普惠金融获得更大的边际产出。本研究有助于丰富数字普惠金融与经济增长之间的研究。

Abstract: The development of information technology has driven the integration of inclusive finance and digital technology, providing new momentum for China’s economic growth. Based on panel data from 31 provinces in China from 2010 to 2020, this article establishes a fixed-effect model to explore the impact of digital inclusive finance on economic growth. The results indicate that the development of digital inclusive finance can significantly promote economic growth, with regional heterogeneity observed. Considering the potential reciprocal relationship between economic growth and digital inclusive finance, the core explanatory variables and control variables are lagged by one period. The results show that digital inclusive finance still significantly promotes economic growth. Additionally, to examine the nonlinear relationship between the two, panel threshold regression is conducted by region, revealing that there is no threshold effect for digital inclusive finance in the western region, while in the eastern and central regions, greater marginal output can be obtained by leveraging digital inclusive finance after surpassing a certain threshold. This study contributes to enriching the research on the relationship between digital financial inclusion and economic growth.