三亚凤凰国际机场近11年降水气候特征分析

Analysis of the Precipitation and Climate Characteristics of Sanya Phoenix International Airport in Recent 11 Years

摘要: 随着民航事业发展，航空用户对更加精细的气象服务有迫切的需求，强对流分类中关于强降水的预报主要依托于数值预报产品的分析预测以及临近预报产品的运用分析，但是由于大多数数值预报模式的精度、更新频次无法满足机场单站预报以及短临预报的需求，而气象雷达虽然能在临近预报中快速地帮助业务人员进行对流影响的直线外推，但其产品更新依旧存在一定的延时性，同时对流回波并不能反应强降水的持续时间，还需要结合本地化降水特征进行主观订正。因此，为了寻找适用于实际业务中降水的预报指标，通过对2012年~2022年三亚凤凰国际机场历史气象资料，针对机场降水的发生特点，从气候、环流形式，日变化特征的角度，利用统计学的方式进行降水特征规律的分析，由于使用的数据来源于机场历年气候志资料，因此具备本机场降水发生特点的代表性。结果表明：(1) 三亚机场降水变化特点与季风转换密切相关；(2) 春、冬季机场以晴好天气为主，夏、秋季为主要的雨季，其中秋季的降水日数最多，而夏季的强降水日数最多；(3) 春、夏、冬降水特点表现为：后半夜是强降水主要发生时段，而秋季强降水发生时段集中在下午；(4) 强降水持续时间基本以30 min以内为主，只有在夏、秋季出现较多60 min，甚至120 min以上强降水过程。本文的创新点在于一方面有效利用了本地化的气象数据资料，得出的结论具备鲜明的本地化特点，能直接运用、指导实际业务工作，另一方面丰富了单站降水预报领域的研究，该方法同样适用于其他气象部门进行本地化的单站降水预报。

Abstract: As civil aviation continues to develop, there is an urgent demand from airline users for more refined meteorological services. The forecasting of heavy precipitation within the classification of severe convective weather primarily relies on the analysis and prediction provided by numerical weather prediction (NWP) products, as well as the application of short-term forecast products. However, due to limitations in accuracy and update frequency of most NWP models, they often fail to meet the requirements for single-station forecasts at airports and short-term predictions. While meteorological radar can quickly assist operational personnel in extrapolating convective impacts during near-term forecasts, its product updates still exhibit certain delays. Additionally, convective echoes do not accurately reflect the duration of heavy rainfall; thus, subjective corrections based on localized precipitation characteristics are necessary. To identify suitable forecasting indicators for precipitation applicable in practical operations, this study analyzes historical meteorological data from Sanya Phoenix International Airport between 2012 and 2022. By examining the occurrence characteristics of airport precipitation from perspectives such as climate patterns, circulation forms, and diurnal variations using statistical methods. The data utilized in this study is derived from the historical climate records of airports, we ensure that our findings represent the unique precipitation characteristics specific to this airport. The results indicate: (1) The variation in precipitation at Sanya Airport is closely related to monsoon transitions; (2) Clear weather predominates during spring and winter months while summer and autumn constitute major rainy seasons-autumn records the highest number of rainy days whereas summer has a greater frequency of intense rainfall events; (3) Precipitation patterns observed in spring, summer, and winter show that significant rainfall mainly occurs during late night hours while intense rainfalls in autumn are concentrated in afternoon periods; (4) The duration of heavy rainfall predominantly lasts under 30 minutes with occurrences exceeding 60 minutes or even 120 minutes being more frequent only during summer and autumn. This study innovatively utilizes localized meteorological data which yields conclusions characterized by distinct local features that can be directly applied to guide practical operations. Furthermore, it enriches research within the domain of single-station precipitation forecasting. This methodology is also applicable for other meteorological departments aiming for localized single-station precipitation predictions.