金融科技、产业结构升级与经济增长互动关系研究

Research on the Interactive Relationship among Fintech, Industrial Structure Upgrading and Economic Growth

摘要: 本文通过构建PVAR模型，采用格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应分析和方差分解的方法，采用31个省(区、市)2011年~2021年的省级数据。研究了中国金融科技水平、产业结构升级与经济增长之间存在的互动关系。研究发现，金融科技水平与产业结构升级和经济增长之间存在双向的格兰杰因果关系，脉冲响应分析和方差分解结果表明，金融科技水平、产业结构升级与经济增长在受到外部冲击后均表现出一定的自我驱动能力和惯性，具有较强的自我强化机制。本研究揭示了金融科技水平对经济增长的积极作用，以及经济增长在推动产业结构升级中的决定性作用，并为促进三者持续发展提供了相关政策建议。

Abstract: By constructing the PVAR model and using the methods of Granger causality test, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition, this paper uses the provincial data of 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) from 2011 to 2021. This paper studies the interactive relationship among the level of fintech, industrial structure upgrading, and economic growth in China. The results of impulse response analysis and variance decomposition show that the level of fintech, industrial structure upgrading and economic growth all show certain self-driving abilities and inertia after external shocks and have a strong self-reinforcing mechanism. This study reveals the positive effect of fintech level on economic growth and the decisive role of economic growth in promoting the upgrading of industrial structure and provides relevant policy suggestions for promoting the sustainable development of the three.