投资者情绪与黄金价格波动：网络社交媒体文本分析

Investor Sentiment and Gold Price Volatility: A Text Analysis of Online Social Media

摘要: 黄金在金融市场中占据着不可或缺的地位，其在维持市场稳定和风险控制中发挥着重要作用。本文利用网络爬虫技术着重研究投资者情绪对黄金价格波动率的影响。本文的研究结果表明：在短期内，黄金价格的变动往往受到投资者情绪波动的影响，这种积极的情绪变动往往会加剧黄金价格的短期波动。然而，当我们将视角拉远至长期时，情况则有所不同。长期而言，黄金价格受到经济政策不确定性所带来的负面影响的可能性更大，而投资者情绪在长期范围内对黄金价格的影响则显得不那么显著。这一发现不仅为分析黄金价格的波动率提供了新的洞察，同时也为金融机构在风险管理和资产配置上提供了宝贵的参考依据。

Abstract: Gold occupies an indispensable position in the financial market, which plays an important role in maintaining market stability and risk control. This paper uses web crawler technology to study the impact of investor sentiment on gold price volatility. The results of this paper show that in the short term, the change of gold price is often affected by the fluctuation of investor sentiment, and such positive sentiment changes tend to aggravate the short-term fluctuation of gold price. However, when we zoom out into the long term, the picture is different. In the long run, gold prices are more likely to be negatively affected by economic policy uncertainty, while investor sentiment is less likely to affect gold prices in the long run. This finding not only provides a new insight into the volatility of gold prices, but also provides a valuable reference for financial institutions in risk management and asset allocation.