预算绩效改革对地方财政支出的影响

The Impact of Budget Performance Reform on Local Expenditure

摘要: 基于多期双重差分模型，本文对2000~2019年预算绩效改革对地方财政支出的影响进行实证检验。研究结果表明，预算绩效改革在多方面对地方财政支出有着显著影响。第一，预算绩效管理改革的推行致使地方财政支出规模缩减，促使地方政府更为谨慎地规划财政资金。第二，此项改革提高了财政资金的使用效率，增进了财政支出资金使用的科学性。第三，异质性分析显示不同地区受改革影响各异，经济发展水平不同的东中西部地区呈现出不同的结果。基于实证结论，提出政策建议：首先，激励各地区探索创新预算绩效管理模式。其次，构建长期动态评估机制。最后，强化财政透明度与问责力度。以期提升地方财政支出的管理水平和效益，促进地区经济社会的健康发展。

Abstract: Based on the multi-period difference-in-difference model, this paper empirically tests the impact of China’s budget performance reform on local fiscal expenditure from 2000 to 2019. The results show that budget performance reform has a significant impact on local fiscal expenditure in many aspects. The research results indicate that budget performance reform has had significant influences on local fiscal expenditures in multiple aspects. Firstly, the implementation of the budget performance management reform has led to a reduction in the scale of local fiscal expenditures, compelling local governments to plan fiscal funds more cautiously. Secondly, this reform has enhanced the utilization efficiency of fiscal funds and improved the scientificity and rationality of fiscal expenditures. Thirdly, the heterogeneity analysis reveals that different regions are affected differently by the reform, with economically developed regions and underdeveloped regions presenting distinct outcomes. Based on the empirical achievements, the following policy suggestions are proposed: Firstly, stimulate all regions to explore and innovate budget performance management models. Secondly, a long-term dynamic evaluation mechanism must be constructed. Finally, strengthen fiscal transparency and accountability. It is expected to elevate the management level and efficiency of local fiscal expenditures and promote the healthy development of the regional economy and society.