国际小麦贸易网络中断的级联失效效应分析

Analysis of Cascade Failure Effect of Disruption of International Wheat Trade Network

摘要: 在保障全球粮食安全方面，全球小麦贸易网络扮演着至关重要的角色。然而，该网络对于少数重要贸易国的供应稳定性具有依赖性。俄乌冲突之类的突发事件可能导致供应链中断，并通过贸易网络引发级联效应，进而影响多个国家的小麦供应。本研究旨在探讨在国际小麦贸易网络中，主要贸易国的供应中断如何传播，并评估不同国家在供应危机中的作用及其影响。本研究基于2020年联合国商品贸易数据库中的小麦贸易数据，构建国际小麦贸易网络模型，并通过构建级联失效模型，模拟俄罗斯、美国、加拿大、法国、德国、阿根廷和澳大利亚等主要小麦贸易国在出口减少情况下的危机传播效应。研究结果揭示了少数重要贸易国在全球贸易网络中的核心地位，其供应中断能够迅速对全球小麦流通产生广泛影响。本文为各国政府和国际组织提供了应对小麦供应危机的政策建议，强调了分散进口来源、增强抗风险能力以及加强全球粮食安全合作的重要性。

Abstract: The global wheat trading network plays a crucial role in guaranteeing global food security. However, the network is dependent on the stability of supply from a few key trading countries. Unforeseen events such as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict may lead to disruptions in the supply chain and trigger a cascading effect through the trade network, which in turn affects the wheat supply of multiple countries. This study aims to explore how supply disruptions in key trading countries propagate in international wheat trade networks and to assess the role of different countries in supply crises and their impacts. This study models the international wheat trade network based on wheat trade data from the United Nations Commodity Trade Database (UN Comtrade) in 2020 and simulates the propagation effects of the crisis in major wheat trading countries such as Russia, the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Argentina and Australia in the event of export reductions by constructing a cascade failure model. The results of the study reveal the central position of a few important trading countries in the global trading network, and their supply disruptions can quickly have a wide impact on global wheat flows. The paper provides policy recommendations for governments and international organizations to respond to wheat supply crises, emphasizing the importance of diversifying import sources, building resilience to risks and strengthening global cooperation for food security.