中国林业碳汇效率评价分析

Evaluation and Analysis of the Efficiency of Forestry Carbon Sinks in China

摘要: 研究林业碳汇的投入产出效率有利于实现林业碳汇资源优化配置，提高碳汇产出水平。首先采用蓄积量扩展法测算了中国29个省(市、区)2004~2022年的林业碳汇量，其次基于DEA-BCC模型Malmquist模型，对林业碳汇效率进行了静态效率测量和动态演进过程分析。结果表明：中国林业碳汇效率总体较低，规模效率是制约综合效率提升的主要因素；生产要素指数波动上升，技术效率变化指数和技术进步指数共同促进了生产要素指数的提高。四大林区的林业碳汇效率由高到低依次为南方林区 > 北方林区 > 西南林区 > 东北林区。为此建议：转换林业碳汇粗放型增长方式；推广规模化经营模式；统筹发展战略，因地制宜提升碳汇效率。

Abstract: Studying the input-output efficiency of forestry carbon sinks is conducive to realizing the optimal allocation of forestry carbon sink resources and improving the output level of carbon sinks. Firstly, the forestry carbon sinks of 29 provinces (cities and districts) in China from 2004 to 2023 were measured by the accumulation expansion method, and secondly, based on the DEA-BCC model and Malmquist model, the forestry carbon sink efficiency was analyzed in terms of the static efficiency measurement and the dynamic evolution process. The results show that: China’s forestry carbon sink efficiency is generally low, and scale efficiency is the main factor restricting the improvement of comprehensive efficiency; the index of production factors fluctuates and rises, and the index of technical efficiency change and the index of technological progress jointly promote the improvement of the index of production factors. The efficiency of forestry carbon sinks in the four major forest regions is, in descending order, Southern Forestry Region > Northern Forestry Region > Southwestern Forestry Region > Northeastern Forestry Region. It is recommended to transform the crude growth mode of forestry carbon sinks; promote the large-scale operation mode; and integrate the development strategy to improve the efficiency of carbon sinks according to local conditions.