楚雄州旱涝灾害特征及应急管理研究

Research on the Characteristics of Drought and Flood Disasters and Emergency Management in Chuxiong Prefecture

摘要: 楚雄州位于云贵高原中部，气候类型为亚热带季风气候，呈现干湿分明的特点。旱涝灾害发生频率较高，对人类的生命财产安全构成了威胁。为了减轻旱涝灾害对楚雄州造成的损失，本文基于1978~2022年的年降水量数据，运用Z指数和小波分析等方法，系统分析了楚雄州的旱涝灾害特征，运用非线性预测模型预测了未来10年楚雄州的旱涝情况，采用PPRR理论模型对当前旱涝灾害应急管理体系存在的问题进行了分析并提出了科学的对策措施。分析发现：在过去45年中，干旱灾害年份多于洪涝灾害年份，楚雄州旱涝灾害具有明显的周期性，主周期为34年。预计未来10年内楚雄州将经历较频繁的旱涝灾害波动，特别是2025年可能发生较大强度的洪涝灾害，而2027年可能遭遇严重干旱。楚雄州在应急管理上存在许多问题，针对干旱灾害，存在环境评估不足、应急准备协调差、应急响应不及时、恢复重建工作滞后等问题；针对洪涝灾害，存在应急意识薄弱、管理预案设计质量不高、相关部门协同不佳、灾后缺乏总结反思等问题。针对这些问题，都提出了科学的应对策略。

Abstract: Chuxiong Prefecture is located in the middle of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, with a subtropical monsoon climate and a distinct dry and wet climate. The frequency of drought and flood disasters is relatively high, posing a threat to the safety of human life and property. In order to alleviate the losses caused by drought and flood disasters in Chuxiong Prefecture, in this paper, based on the annual precipitation data from 1978 to 2022, the characteristics of drought and flood disasters in Chuxiong Prefecture were systematically analyzed by using Z-index and wavelet analysis, the drought and flood conditions in Chuxiong Prefecture in the next 10 years were predicted by using the nonlinear prediction model, and scientific countermeasures are proposed. The analysis shows that in the past 45 years, there are more drought disaster years than flood disaster years, and the drought and flood disasters in Chuxiong Prefecture have obvious periodicity, with a main cycle of 34 years. It is expected that Chuxiong Prefecture will experience frequent fluctuations in drought and flood disasters in the next 10 years, especially in 2025, which may experience large-intensity floods, and in 2027, it may encounter severe drought. There are many problems in emergency management in Chuxiong Prefecture, such as insufficient environmental assessment, poor coordination of emergency preparedness, untimely emergency response, and lagging recovery and reconstruction work in response to drought disasters. In view of flood disasters, there are some problems, such as weak emergency awareness, low quality of management plan design, poor coordination of relevant departments, and lack of post-disaster summary and reflection. In view of these problems, scientific coping strategies are proposed.