跨境电商综试区政策对碳生产率的影响研究——基于城市层面的经验证据

Study on the Impact of Cross-Border E-Commerce Comprehensive Pilot Zone Policy on Carbon Productivity—Based on Empirical Evidence from Chinese Cities

摘要: 提升碳生产率是实现“碳达峰”和“碳中和”目标的关键策略，跨境电子商务是促进经济“双循环”的重要途径，但是两者之间的关系尚不明晰。以2009~2021年中国278个地级市为对象，基于跨境电商综试区试点城市形成准自然实验，探讨该政策对碳生产率的影响及其作用机制。结果表明，跨境电商综试区政策显著降低城市碳生产率，在采用工具变量法处理潜在内生性问题以及一系列稳健性检验后，这一结论依然成立。机制研究表明，推动绿色技术创新和改善能源消费结构是政策影响碳生产率的重要渠道。异质性分析发现，跨境电商综试区政策对碳生产率的影响因城市基础设施水平等因素的不同而存在差异。鉴于此，应充分发挥跨境电商在推动绿色技术创新与改善能源结构方面的作用，深化清洁技术应用，优化能源消费结构，提升城市低碳转型能力，推进城市绿色低碳和经济可持续发展。

Abstract: Enhancing carbon productivity is a key strategy for achieving the goals of “carbon peak” and “carbon neutrality,” while cross-border e-commerce (CBEC) is an essential pathway to promote the “dual circulation” of the economy. However, the relationship between these two is not yet clear. This study investigates the impact of the CBEC pilot zone policy on carbon productivity in Chinese cities and explores its underlying mechanisms using 278 prefecture-level cities in China from 2009 to 2021 as subjects. A quasi-natural experiment based on the formation of CBEC pilot cities is conducted, and the results indicate that the CBEC pilot zone policy significantly reduces urban carbon productivity. This conclusion remains robust after employing instrumental variable methods to address potential endogeneity issues and conducting a series of robustness checks. Mechanistic research suggests that promoting green technological innovation and improving the energy consumption structure are crucial pathways through which the policy affects carbon productivity. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the impact of the CBEC pilot zone policy on carbon productivity varies depending on factors such as the level of urban infrastructure. In light of these findings, it is recommended to fully leverage the role of CBEC in promoting green technological innovation and energy structure improvement. This can be achieved by orderly guiding the flow of R&D elements, deepening the application of clean technologies, optimizing energy consumption structures, enhancing urban low-carbon transformation capabilities, and advancing urban green, low-carbon, and sustainable economic development.