中国省际跨境电子商务综合发展水平的评价指标体系构建、动态演进及政策启示

Construction of Evaluation Indicator System, Dynamic Evolution and Policy Implications of Comprehensive Development Level of Interprovincial Cross-Border E-Commerce in China

摘要: 省际跨境电子商务研究助力中国经济高质量发展，研究层次从规模指数、支持指数、潜力指数维度构建评价指标体系。通过熵值法测度2013~2022年省际跨境电子商务发展水平，并借助核密度估计和马尔科夫链方法分析其动态演进特征。结果表明，中国跨境电子商务发展速度整体呈上升趋势，但发展速度存在差异；从稳定性来看，处于跨境电子商务发展高水平的省份具有较高稳定性，处于其他层面的省份正向转移概率难以实现跨越式发展；从分维度来看，排名靠前的省份自身核心维度较明显，处于薄弱环节的省份应根据自身发展特点增强补弱，提高本省跨境电子发展水平。

Abstract: Interprovincial cross-border e-commerce research helps China’s economic high-quality development, and the research level is structured to build an evaluation index system from the scale index, support index, and potential index dimensions. The level of inter-provincial cross-border e-commerce development is measured by entropy method from 2013 to 2022, and its dynamic evolution characteristics are analyzed with the help of kernel density estimation and Markov chain method. The results show that China’s overall cross-border e-commerce development speed is on the rise, but there are differences in the development speed; from the stability point of view, the provinces at a high level of cross-border e-commerce development have a high stability, and the provinces at other levels of positive transfer probability are difficult to realize leapfrog development; from the sub-dimension point of view, the top-ranking provinces are more obvious in their own core dimensions, and the provinces in the weak link should enhance and make up for the weak according to their own development characteristics to improve the level of cross-border electronic development in this province.