基于对数回归的电影票房影响因素分析

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Movie Box Office Based on Logarithmic Regression

摘要: 电影越来越成为一种潮流的象征，日益丰富着我们的日常生活。此次案例分析的数据为截至目前中国大陆上映的100部电影的票房数据及其影响因素，选取首日票房、上映首周票房、档期、题材、评分(猫眼)、平均票价、播放形式、电影时长、预告片播放量(亿)、想看人数(万人)、演员影响力、导演影响力、预算(万元)这13个指标作为电影票房的影响因素。首先，我们对数据进行预处理，对处理好的数据进行分类描述性统计分析，再对自变量与因变量进行相关性分析，通过分析发现，想看人数和首日票房之间存在较强的相关性，故在回归建模时删掉这两个变量；其次，我们使用逐步回归模型进一步筛选变量，使用对数回归模型探索对电影票房具有显著影响的指标；最后，我们得到档期、题材、播放形式、上映首周票房、评分、平均票价、预告片播放量这7个变量对票房有显著影响。较高票房的两类电影是动作片和喜剧片；导演影响力对于电影票房不存在很大的影响；票房较高的电影得分也较高，得分基本在9分左右，但并不是得分越高的电影票房也就越高。

Abstract: Cinema is becoming more and more a symbol of a trend, enriching our daily lives day by day. The data of this case analysis is the box office data and its influencing factors of the 100 films released in Chinese mainland so far, and selects 13 indicators such as the box office on the first day, the box office of the first week of release, the schedule, the theme, the score (Maoyan), the average ticket price, the broadcast form, the movie duration, the number of trailers played (100 million), the number of people who want to watch (10,000 people), the influence of actors, the influence of directors, and the budget (10,000 yuan) as the influencing factors of the movie box office. Firstly, we preprocessed the data, performed a categorical descriptive statistical analysis on the processed data, and then performed a correlation analysis between the independent variable and the dependent variable, and found that there was a strong correlation between the number of people who wanted to watch and the box office on the first day, so these two variables were deleted in the regression modeling. Secondly, we used a stepwise regression model to further screen the variables, and used a logarithmic regression model to explore the indicators that had a significant impact on the box office. Finally, we get that the 7 variables of schedule, theme, broadcast format, box office in the first week of release, rating, average ticket price, and trailer playback have a significant impact on the box office. The two categories of films that gross higher are action and comedy; The director’s influence does not have a great impact on the box office; Movies with higher box office scores are also higher, with a score of around 9 points, but it is not that movies with higher scores will also have higher box office.