经济政策不确定性对银行风险承担的影响研究

The Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Bank Risk-Taking

摘要: 经济政策不确定性是关乎宏观经济环境稳定性的重要因素之一，对银行业的运作和风险管理策略产生重大影响。文章以我国100家银行为研究对象，选取2013年到2022年为样本的时间区间，选用个体固定效应模型进行实证分析，进一步用bootstraps做中介效应分析、调节效应以及异质性分析，验证经济政策不确定性对银行风险承担的影响。研究结果表明，经济政策不确定性显著降低了银行的风险承担水平，利用美国的经济政策不确定性指数替换解释变量，结果显示通过稳定性检验。进一步的分析发现，经济政策不确定性上升会导致银行家对货币政策感受指数提高，使得银行的破产风险增加；绿色金融的发展，会弱化经济政策不确定性对银行风险承担的影响；相比于东部和中部地区，西部地区银行受经济政策不确定性影响更大。最后提出国家需要大力发展绿色金融以及加强对西部地区的政策支持。

Abstract: Economic policy uncertainty is one of the key factors that affect the stability of the macroeconomic environment and has a significant impact on the operation and risk management strategies of the banking industry. The article takes 100 banks in China as the research subjects, selects the time period from 2013 to 2022 as the sample interval, and uses the individual fixed effect model for empirical analysis. Further, bootstraps are used for mediating effect analysis, moderating effect analysis, and heterogeneity analysis to verify the impact of economic policy uncertainty on banks’ risk-taking. The results show that economic policy uncertainty significantly reduces the level of risk undertaken by banks. When the economic policy uncertainty index of the United States is used to replace the explanatory variable, the results pass the stability test. Further analysis reveals that an increase in economic policy uncertainty will lead to an increase in the perception index of monetary policy by bank executives, thereby increasing the bankruptcy risk of banks. The development of green finance will weaken the impact of economic policy uncertainty on banks’ risk-taking. Compared with banks in the eastern and central regions, banks in the western region are more affected by economic policy uncertainty. Finally, it is suggested that the country needs to vigorously develop green finance and strengthen policy support for the western region.