货币政策不确定性下数字化转型对商业银行经营风险影响的研究

Research on the Impact of Digital Transformation on the Operational Risk of Commercial Banks under the Uncertainty of Monetary Policy

摘要: 货币政策的实施和调整不仅直接影响经济波动，也对商业银行的运营产生重大影响。随着数字金融技术的广泛应用，许多商业银行选择进行数字化转型以应对这种不确定性。通过数字化转型，商业银行可以降低运营成本，提高经营效率。但数字化转型对风险管理的影响尚未明确。文章通过运用调节效应检验模型，对2011~2021年我国58家上市银行的年度数据进行了实证研究，结合“北京大学商业银行数字转型指数”，探讨了货币政策不确定下数字化转型程度与银行风险之间的关系，并分析了不同类型银行的异质性特征。文章发现，货币政策不确定性会促进数字化转型降低商业银行风险，并且不同类型银行对数字化转型与货币政策不确定性的响应存在显著差异。具体表现为相较于国有银行和股份制银行，城市商业银行和农村商业银行受货币政策不确定性影响较小。

Abstract: The implementation and adjustment of monetary policy not only directly affect economic fluctuations, but also have a significant impact on the operation of commercial banks. With the widespread application of digital financial technology, many commercial banks choose to undergo digital transformation to cope with this uncertainty. Through digital transformation, commercial banks can reduce operating costs and improve operational efficiency. However, the impact of digital transformation on risk management is not yet clear. The article conducted an empirical study on the annual data of 58 listed banks in China from 2011 to 2021 by using a moderation effect test model. Combined with the “Peking University Commercial Bank Digital Transformation Index”, it explored the relationship between the degree of digital transformation and bank risk under monetary policy uncertainty, and analyzed the heterogeneity characteristics of different types of banks. The article found that monetary policy uncertainty promotes digital transformation and reduces commercial bank risks, and there are significant differences in the response of different types of banks to digital transformation and monetary policy uncertainty. Specifically, compared to state-owned banks and joint-stock banks, urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks are less affected by monetary policy uncertainty.