基于动态仿真的地铁站点人群流动与管控效果分析

Analysis of Crowd Flow and Control Effectiveness in Subway Stations Based on Dynamic Simulation

摘要: 本研究基于人民广场地铁站图纸，构建仿真模型模拟不同管控策略下的人群流动。其结果采用层次分析法确定指标权重，并建立人群流动管控效果评价指标体系，通过模糊综合评价法定量评价导流和限流两类不同管控策略的实施效果。结果表明，实施导流和限流措施后，管控效果评价等级最高可以达到V2，即管控效果良好。其中增设导流栏杆的导流策略对于V2的隶属度为0.3454。限流策略有两种，打开楼梯通道对V3的隶属度为0.4871，更改闸机状态的隶属度为0.4706。说明在综合提升地铁站人群流动的流畅性、均衡性及稳定性方面，限流策略管控效果优于导流策略，而更改闸机状态相对于其他限流方法更为有效。

Abstract: Based on the drawings of People’s Square subway station, this study constructs a simulation model to simulate the crowd flow under different control strategies. The results use hierarchical analysis to determine the weights of the indicators and establish the evaluation index system of crowd flow control effect, and quantitatively evaluate the implementation effect of the two different types of control strategies, namely, diversion and flow restriction, through the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results show that after the implementation of the measures of infusion and flow restriction, the highest evaluation level of the control effect can reach V2, i.e., the control effect is good. The flow-guiding strategy of adding guide railings has an affiliation of 0.3454 for V2. There are two types of flow-restricting strategies, opening the stairway has an affiliation of 0.4871 for V3, and changing the gate status has an affiliation of 0.4706, which indicates that in terms of comprehensively improving the smoothness, balance, and stability of the crowd flow in the subway station, the flow-restricting strategy has a better effect than the flow-guiding strategy, and changing the gate status is more effective than other methods of flow-restricting.