碳交易试点政策对碳市场企业产出的影响

The Impact of Carbon Trading Pilot Policies on Firm Output in Carbon Markets

摘要: 碳排放权交易在中国的绿色发展路径探索中占据重要地位，其政策效果备受关注。本文通过手工整理匹配中国碳交易试点地区的控排企业名单与税收调查数据，从理论和实际两个角度测算企业生产效率，评估碳交易政策效果。理论上，通过非参数环境生产技术模型测算各个碳市场在命令控制型和市场交易型两种模型假设下的企业潜在产出及变动比重，发现市场交易模型中的潜在产出水平更高，控排企业在碳市场中资源配置效率提升、经济潜力更大；实际效果采用倾向得分匹配–双重差分法(PSM-DID)评估，结果发现不同碳市场的政策效应具有显著异质性，上海、深圳碳市场出现短期负效应，反映出市场设立初期对企业造成一定的生产和减排压力；但广东碳市场显示政策有效，表明碳试点政策有助于提升企业生产效率。总的来看，碳交易政策能够实现理论上更高的企业产出，但实际情况中不同碳市场的政策效果各不相同。

Abstract: Carbon emissions trading plays a pivotal role in China’s exploration of a green development path, and its policy effects have garnered significant attention. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of carbon trading policies by manually matching the list of emission-controlled enterprises in China’s carbon trading pilot regions with tax survey data and examining firm production efficiency from both theoretical and practical perspectives. Theoretically, by employing a non-parametric environmental production technology model, we estimate the potential output and its changing proportion of firms under two hypothetical models: command-and-control and market-based trading, in various carbon markets. The results reveal higher potential output levels in the market-based trading model, indicating improved resource allocation efficiency and greater economic potential for emission-controlled firms in carbon markets. For practical effects, we use the PSM-DID method to assess policy impacts and find significant heterogeneity in policy effects across different carbon markets. Short-term negative effects emerge in the Shanghai and Shenzhen carbon markets, reflecting initial production and emission reduction pressures on firms during the market’s establishment. However, the Guangdong carbon market demonstrates policy effectiveness, suggesting that carbon pilot policies can enhance firm production efficiency. Overall, carbon trading policies can theoretically achieve higher firm output, but the policy effects vary in practice across different carbon markets.