基于LMDI的长三角地区碳排放影响因素研究

Decomposition Analysis of Carbon Emission Factors in Yangtze River Delta Region Based on LMDI

摘要: 本文通过构建对数平均迪氏指数分解模型，选取规模、结构和技术三个效应下的六个主要影响因素，对2005~2019年长三角地区各部门二氧化碳排放量进行量化驱动力分解。主要结论包括：1) 经济产出水平效应是促成CO₂排放量正向增多的最明显影响因素。经济产出水平的提高使CO₂排放量累增1.27 × 10⁹ t，对正向促成二氧化碳排放贡献度高达113.5%；人口规模的上升使二氧化碳排放量累增1.29 × 10⁸ t，对正向促成二氧化碳排放贡献度达11.5%。2) 能源结构效应是减缓CO₂排放量增多的最明显影响因素。能源结构的调整使得二氧化碳排放量累计减少1.35 × 10⁸ t，对减缓二氧化碳排放贡献度达12.1%；能源强度的下降使得二氧化碳排放量累计减少6.19 × 10⁷ t，对减缓二氧化碳排放贡献度达5.5%；产业结构的优化使得二氧化碳排放量累计减少8.34 × 10⁷ t，对减缓二氧化碳排放贡献度达7.4%。3) 上海市、江苏省、浙江省和安徽省四个地区的经济产出水平效应对促成各地区二氧化碳排放贡献度分别是124%、113%、81%、130%；人口规模效应对促成各地区二氧化碳排放贡献度分别是27.6%、10.2%、12.9%、6.1%；能源结构效应对减缓各地区二氧化碳排放贡献度分别是13.2%、10.3%、15.7%、8.2%。

Abstract: By constructing an LMDI model, this paper decomposes the quantitative driving forces of CO₂ emissions in various sectors in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2005 to 2019 based on a selection of six main influencing factors under the three effects of size, structure and technology. The main findings include: 1) Economic output is the main factor promoting the growth of CO₂ emissions, and the increase in economic output level has increased CO₂ emissions by 1.27 × 10⁹ t, contributing 113.5% to promoting carbon dioxide emissions; The increase in population size has led to a cumulative increase of 1.29 × 10⁸ tons of CO₂ emissions, contributing 11.5% to the promotion of CO₂ emissions. 2) The energy structure effect is the main factor inhibiting the growth of CO₂ emissions, and the improvement of energy structure has reduced CO₂ emissions by 1.35 × 10⁸ t, contributing 12.1% to the suppression of CO₂ emissions; The decrease in energy intensity reduced CO₂ emissions by 6.19 × 10⁷ t, contributing 5.5% to the suppression of CO₂ emissions. The improvement of the industrial structure has reduced CO₂ emissions by 8.34 × 10⁷ tons, contributing 7.4% to the suppression of CO₂ emissions. 3) The contribution of economic output effects to the promotion of CO₂ emissions in Shanghai, Jiangsu Province, Zhejiang Province and Anhui Province is 124%, 113%, 81% and 130% respectively. The contribution of population size effect to the promotion of CO₂ emissions in each region is 27.6%, 10.2%, 12.9% and 6.1%, respectively. The contribution of energy structure effect to the suppression of CO₂ emissions in each region is 13.2%, 10.3%, 15.7% and 8.2%, respectively.