基于熵权法的区域碳配额分配方案研究——以山东省为例

Research on Regional Carbon Allowance Allocation Scheme Based on Entropy Weight Method—A Case Study of Shandong Province

摘要: 随着全球减排压力的增加，中国提出一系列减排目标，碳排放配额的分配作为构建碳交易体系的首要步骤至关重要。山东省作为我国的工业聚集区和经济发展的重要战略支点，其历史碳排放量一直处于较高水平。本文以山东省为例，构建指标体系并基于熵权法给出了山东省16个地级市的碳配额分配方案。结果表明，济南、青岛等经济发展水平较高的地区在本研究的指标体系下获得的碳配额较少，而一些经济欠发达的地区获得的碳配额较多。本文提出的碳配额分配方法也可用于其他场景的分配，考虑到其他场景的指标差异性，所得结论与本文不一定相符，本文旨在为碳配额分配及碳交易市场的构建贡献一种思路。

Abstract: With the increasing global pressure for emissions reduction, China has set forth a series of emission reduction targets. The allocation of carbon emission allowances is a critical first step in establishing a carbon trading system. Shandong Province, as an industrial hub and a key strategic point for economic development in China, has historically maintained a high level of carbon emissions. This paper uses Shandong Province as a case study to construct an indicator system and, based on the entropy weight method, proposes a carbon allowance allocation scheme for the 16 prefecture-level cities in Shandong. The results indicate that cities with higher levels of economic development, such as Jinan and Qingdao, receive fewer carbon allowances under the proposed indicator system, while less economically developed regions receive more carbon allowances. The carbon allowance allocation scheme proposed in this paper can also be applied to other scenarios, although the conclusions may differ due to variations in the indicators of different contexts. This study aims to contribute a methodological approach to the allocation of carbon allowances and the establishment of carbon trading markets.