ESG评级分歧对分析师盈余预测准确性的影响研究

The Influence of ESG Rating Divergence on the Accuracy of Analyst Earnings Forecasts

摘要: ESG评级机构逐渐壮大，但评级差异却在资本市场实践中产生噪音，为利益相关者决策带来困扰。基于此，以2010~2022年A股上市公司为样本，实证检验ESG评级分歧对分析师盈余预测准确性的影响。研究发现：ESG评级分歧显著降低分析师盈余预测准确性，经由稳健性检验后结论依旧成立。进一步研究发现：作用机制检验得出，ESG评级分歧通过提高企业经营风险，进而加剧分析师盈余预测偏差；异质性分析表明，当企业信息不透明度越高，ESG评级分歧对分析师预测准确性的负面影响进一步增强；当企业独立披露ESG报告、应规披露ESG信息，ESG评级分歧对分析师预测准确性的抑制作用将进一步减弱。研究结论识别了ESG评级分歧对分析师盈余预测影响的作用路径，实证ESG分歧的信息价值，为监管机构规范ESG评级体系提供经验证据。

Abstract: ESG rating agencies are growing, but rating discrepancies create noise in capital market practices and confuse stakeholder decisions. Based on this, taking A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2022 as a sample, this paper empirically examines the impact of ESG rating divergence on the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts. The research finds that: ESG rating divergence significantly reduces the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecast, and the conclusion is still valid after a series of robustness tests. Furthermore, the mediating mechanism test shows that ESG rating divergence aggravates analysts’ earnings forecast bias by increasing corporate operating risk; when the corporate information opacity is higher, the negative impact of ESG rating divergence on the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecast is further enhanced. When companies independently disclose ESG reports and disclose ESG information in accordance with regulations, the inhibitory effect of ESG rating divergence on the accuracy of analysts’ forecasts will be further weakened. The research conclusion identifies the effect path of ESG rating divergence on analysts’ earnings forecast, demonstrates the information value of ESG divergence, and provides empirical evidence for regulators to standardize ESG rating system.