基于组合赋权-TOPSIS模型的城市燃气输送管道泄漏风险评价

Based on the Combined Weighting-TOPSIS Model for Risk Assessment of Urban Natural Gas Transmission Pipeline Leakage

摘要: 燃气管道泄漏风险因素的评价分析是预防城市燃气输送管道火灾爆炸事故的重要一环，为了客观评价城市燃气输送管道泄漏的风险，本文提出了一种基于组合赋权-TOPSIS的城市燃气输送管道泄漏风险评价模型。首先基于文献调研、案例分析和专家咨询构建了城市燃气输送管道泄漏风险因素评价指标体系，再基于博弈论思想将改进层次分析法和熵权法得到的主客观权重组合赋权，并结合TOPSIS综合评价法构建城市燃气输送管道泄漏风险评价模型，最后利用该模型对湖南省某市某一涵洞的燃气输送管道进行风险评价。结果表明：1) 城市燃气输送管道泄漏的主要风险源为城市燃气管网的管道缺陷、管道本质安全、管道腐蚀和工作人员误操作，其中工作人员误操作最为关键；2) 基于本文所构建评价模型的评价结果可以使燃气集团清晰地掌握其安全生产管理中的薄弱环节，为其制度的完善提供参考；3) 本次综合评价模型为城市燃气输送管道的泄漏风险评价提供了新的方法。

Abstract: The evaluation and analysis of risk factors associated with gas pipeline leakage is a crucial step in preventing fire and explosion incidents in urban gas transmission pipelines. To objectively assess the leakage risk of urban gas transmission pipelines, this article proposed a risk evaluation model based on a combination weighting-TOPSIS approach. Firstly, an evaluation index system for risk factors related to urban gas pipeline leakage was constructed through literature review, case analysis, and expert consultation. Then, based on the game theory concept, a combination of subjective and objective weights was derived using the improved Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the entropy weight method, which was integrated with the TOPSIS comprehensive evaluation method to develop the risk evaluation model for gas pipeline leakage. Finally, this model was applied to assess the risk of gas transmission pipelines in a culvert in a city in Hunan Province. The results indicate that: 1) The primary risk sources for urban gas pipeline leakage include pipeline defects, intrinsic safety of the pipeline, pipeline corrosion, and human error, with human error being the most critical factor; 2) The evaluation results based on the model developed in this study enable gas companies to clearly identify weaknesses in their safety management practices and provide references for improving their systems; 3) This comprehensive evaluation model offers a novel approach for assessing leakage risks in urban gas transmission pipelines.