数字普惠金融、电子商务与贸易韧性

Digital Inclusive Finance, E-Commerce, and Trade Resilience

摘要: 数字普惠金融作为金融新模式，有助于贸易活动获得金融支持应对外来冲击，提升贸易韧性。本文基于我国2013~2022年的省份面板数据，通过固定效应模型深入分析了数字普惠金融与贸易韧性的内在关系。研究发现，数字普惠金融对贸易韧性具有显著的提升效果，并在稳健性检验之后结果依旧成立；通过地区异质性分析，发现数字普惠金融对贸易韧性的提升效果在东部地区最佳，中西部地区次之；之后调节效应发现电子商务发展水平对数字普惠金融与贸易韧性之间的关系具有正向调节作用，即电子商务发展水平越高，数字普惠金融提升贸易韧性的效果越好。

Abstract: Digital inclusive finance, emerging as a novel financial paradigm, facilitates trade activities in obtaining financial backing to withstand external disruptions and bolster trade resilience. Utilizing provincial panel data spanning from 2013 to 2022 in China, this paper delves into the intrinsic link between digital inclusive finance and trade resilience through a fixed effects model. The results reveal a pronounced enhancement effect of digital inclusive finance on trade resilience, with the results remaining consistent after rigorous robustness checks. A regional heterogeneity analysis further indicates that the positive impact of digital inclusive finance on trade resilience is most pronounced in the eastern region, followed by the central and western regions. Additionally, an examination of moderating effects unveils that the level of e-commerce development positively moderates the relationship between digital inclusive finance and trade resilience, suggesting that higher e-commerce development amplifies the effectiveness of digital inclusive finance in enhancing trade resilience.