数字化背景下国家中心城市碳排放效率的测度及其收敛性研究——基于三阶段SBM-DEA模型的实证分析

Study on Measurement and Convergence of Carbon Emission Efficiency of National Central Cities under the Digital Background—Empirical Analysis Based on Three-Stage SBM-DEA Model

摘要: 基于二十大“积极稳妥推进双碳工作”的战略方针，我国国家中心城市作为城镇体系的顶层结构，全面提升资源利用效率，对实现区域协调绿色发展目标具有重要意义。论文以我国国家中心城市群为研究对象，并结合三阶段超效率SBM-DEA模型和Malmquist-Luenberger指数，对我国9个国家中心城市2005年到2019年碳排放效率进行测度。同时根据实证结果构建了面板数据模型，从投入要素角度出发，探究各因素对于国家中心城市碳减排绩效的影响程度。结果显示全国各国家中心城市碳排放效率整体水平偏低，老一代国家中心城市处于碳排放效率领先地位；从动态效果分析看，国家中心城市碳排放效率ML指数总体平均值大于1，说明各城市碳排放效率逐年增加。技术进步促进了碳排放效率ML指数的增长，纯技术效率的相对较低，总体上表现为“东中西”顺序递减的空间格局；各城市之间存在显著的空间收敛关系，禀赋结构对于收敛性有明显正向相关影响。鉴于此，本文以国家中心城市为研究对象，制定差异化碳减排政策，推动区域高质量发展。以国家中心城市为代表，积极参与国际气候合作，协同推进减碳、减污、扩绿与增长，优化城市布局，构建区域协调发展新格局。

Abstract: Based on the strategic guideline of “proactively and prudently advancing carbon neutrality” outlined in the 20th National Congress, China’s national central cities, as the top tier of the urban system, play a significant role in achieving coordinated and sustainable regional development by enhancing resource utilization efficiency. This study takes China’s national central cities as the research object and applies the three-stage super-efficiency SBM-DEA model and Malmquist-Luenberger index to measure the carbon emission efficiency of nine national central cities from 2005 to 2019. Based on the empirical results, a panel data model is constructed to analyze the impact of various input factors on carbon reduction performance in national central cities. The results indicate that the overall carbon emission efficiency of national central cities is relatively low, with older generations of national central cities leading in efficiency. From a dynamic perspective, the average ML index of carbon emission efficiency across the cities exceeds 1, indicating an annual improvement in efficiency. Technological progress is identified as the primary driver of the ML index growth, while pure technical efficiency remains relatively low. The spatial distribution of efficiency generally follows a decreasing trend from east to west. A significant spatial convergence relationship exists among cities, with resource endowment structure positively influencing convergence. In view of this, the study proposes differentiated carbon reduction policies for national central cities to promote high-quality regional development. Representing China, national central cities should actively participate in international climate cooperation, synergistically advance carbon reduction, pollution control, ecological restoration, and economic growth, optimize urban layouts, and foster a new pattern of coordinated regional development.